David Harrison#57 of 87 NFL pundits · Feb 16, 2026
In a mock draft for the Washington Commanders, Harrison trades pick No. 7 to the Jets for picks 16 and 33 and then projects seven specific selections: Peter Woods at 16, Emmanuel McNeil-Warren at 33, Keelan Rutledge in the third, Max Llewellyn in the fifth, Tanner Koziol at 186, Robert Spears-Jennings at 197 and James Thompson Jr. at 223.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Commanders (podcast)Hear the original
What David Harrison said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromAnd at number 16, we went with interior defensive lineman, Peter Woods, out of Clemson
- Where it was said
- Locked On Commanders (podcast)
- The episode
- TRADE DOWN: Why the Washington Commanders Should GRAB More NFL Draft Picks and Build for Success
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidFeb 16
- GradedAug 14–18
- 1Keylan Rutledge to be picked “third round” (picks 65–100)“And then the third round to wrap up the first two days of the NFL draft, we're going with offensive lineman, Keelan Rutledge out of Georgia Tech.”
- 2Max Llewellyn to be picked “fifth round pick” (picks 141–181)“fifth round pick. Max Llewellyn, Ed Rusher out of Iowa.”
- 3Peter Woods to be picked at number 16“And at number 16, we went with interior defensive lineman, Peter Woods, out of Clemson, six foot three, three hundred fifteen pound, type of guy.”
- 4Robert Spears-Jennings to be picked at number 197“And then number one ninety seven, again, in the sixth round, going back to the secondary ... Robert Spears Jennings out of Oklahoma.”
- 5Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to be picked at number 33“Come back in the second round pick number 33... Emmanuel McNeil Warren, safety added Toledo”
- 6James Thompson to be picked at number 223“Number two twenty three in the seventh round, wrapping up our mock draft. Defensive lineman, James Thompson Junior”
- 7Tanner Koziol to be picked at number 186“Pick number one eighty six. ... We're going with Tanner Cozy, old tight end out of Houston.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keylan Rutledge to be picked “third round” (picks 65–100)1 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 26 | 18.46 | 50 | +50 | |
| Max Llewellyn to be picked “fifth round pick” (picks 141–181)2 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 238 | 8.46 | 50 | +50 | |
| Peter Woods to be picked at number 163 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 29 | 56.94 | 50 | +50 | |
| Robert Spears-Jennings to be picked at number 1974 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 224 | 31.05 | 50 | +50 | |
| Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to be picked at number 335 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 58 | 33.86 | 50 | +50 | |
| James Thompson to be picked at number 2236 | Mock Draft Picks | Went undrafted | 0 | 50 | +50 | |
| Tanner Koziol to be picked at number 1867 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 164 | 38.56 | 50 | +50 | |
| 7 calls · 1 close call · 6 misses · all settled | 26.8 | 50 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive7 checkable claims — 7 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 26.8 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
1Mock Draft PicksKeylan RutledgeWashington Commanders
Keylan Rutledge to be picked “third round” (picks 65–100)
What happenedWent 2618.46Miss · naive 50100this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=50better than naive×1difficulty=+50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Keylan Rutledge
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 18.46
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 26
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 18.46
- predicted pick:
- third round (picks 65–100)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
2Mock Draft PicksMax LlewellynWashington Commanders
Max Llewellyn to be picked “fifth round pick” (picks 141–181)
What happenedWent 2388.46Miss · naive 50100this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=50better than naive×1difficulty=+50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Max Llewellyn
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 8.46
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 238
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 8.46
- predicted pick:
- fifth round pick (picks 141–181)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
3Mock Draft PicksPeter WoodsWashington Commanders
Peter Woods to be picked at number 16
What happenedWent 29mocked at 1656.94Close · naive 50100this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=50better than naive×1difficulty=+50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Peter Woods
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 56.94
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 29
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 56.94
- predicted pick:
- 16
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
4Mock Draft PicksRobert Spears-JenningsWashington Commanders
Robert Spears-Jennings to be picked at number 197
What happenedWent 224mocked at 19731.05Miss · naive 50100this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=50better than naive×1difficulty=+50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Robert Spears-Jennings
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 31.05
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 224
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 31.05
- predicted pick:
- 197
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
5Mock Draft PicksEmmanuel McNeil-WarrenWashington Commanders
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to be picked at number 33
What happenedWent 58mocked at 3333.86Miss · naive 50100this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=50better than naive×1difficulty=+50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 33.86
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 58
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 33.86
- predicted pick:
- 33
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
6Mock Draft PicksJames ThompsonWashington Commanders
James Thompson to be picked at number 223
What happenedWent undraftedmocked at 2230Miss · naive 50100this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=50better than naive×1difficulty=+50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- James Thompson
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; later signed with SF
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- 223
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
7Mock Draft PicksTanner KoziolWashington Commanders
Tanner Koziol to be picked at number 186
What happenedWent 164mocked at 18638.56Miss · naive 50100this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=50better than naive×1difficulty=+50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Tanner Koziol
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 38.56
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 164
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 38.56
- predicted pick:
- 186
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 7 settled calls, each counted once
26.8naive 50
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
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Dajani picked seven Week 10 games with final scores, including a Commanders upset of the Giants, Lions over the Patriots in Munich, Chiefs over the Falcons, Packers edging the Vikings, 49ers over the Cowboys, Bengals over the Steelers and Ravens over the Chargers. They also suggested Joe Burrow could win MVP this season.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Gilberto Manzano · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Manzano picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Browns, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.Blaine Grisak · Mock Draft Picks · Brian Thomas Jr. · Hit 84
Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.