Wade PhillipsSep 6, 2022
Phillips picked Patrick Mahomes MVP, Joe Burrow OPOY, T.J. Watt DPOY, Kenny Pickett OROY, Aidan Hutchinson DROY, Derrick Henry Comeback Player and Kevin O'Connell Coach of the Year.
Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original
What Wade Phillips said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromWade Phillips, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
- Where it was published
- The 33rd Team
- The piece
- 2022 NFL Awards Predictions: MVP, Rookies of the Year, and More - The 33rd Team
- The original
- The copy as archived Sep 7, 2022
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.
- SaidSep 5, 2022
- GradedAug 5, 2026
- 1Kevin O'Connell to win Coach of the Year“Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell (1 vote: Phillips)”
- 2Patrick Mahomes to win Most Valuable Player“T2. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (3 votes: Charles Davis, Marty Mornhinweg, Wade Phillips)”
- 3T.J. Watt to win Defensive Player of the Year“T2. Steelers LB T.J. Watt (3 votes: Koetter, Lewis, Phillps)”
- 4Derrick Henry to win Comeback Player of the Year“2. Titans RB Derrick Henry (5 votes: Barber, Cassel, Gannon, Phillips, Thomas)”
- 5Joe Burrow to win Offensive Player of the Year“Bengals QB Joe Burrow (1 vote: Phillips)”
- 6Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year“1. Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson (10 votes: ... Phillips ...)”
- 7Kenny Pickett to win Offensive Rookie of the Year“T2. Steelers QB Kenny Pickett (3 votes: Mornhinweg, Phillips, Wannstedt)”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin O'Connell to win Coach of the Year1 | Coach Award Picks | Brian Daboll won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Patrick Mahomes to win Most Valuable Player2 | Award Picks | Patrick Mahomes won | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| T.J. Watt to win Defensive Player of the Year3 | Award Picks | Nick Bosa won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Derrick Henry to win Comeback Player of the Year4 | Award Picks | Geno Smith won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Joe Burrow to win Offensive Player of the Year5 | Award Picks | Justin Jefferson won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year6 | Award Picks | Sauce Gardner won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kenny Pickett to win Offensive Rookie of the Year7 | Award Picks | Garrett Wilson won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 calls · 1 hit · 6 misses · all settled | 14.3 | 0 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive7 checkable claims — 6 award picks and 1 coach award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 14.3 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Coach Award PicksMinnesota Vikings
Kevin O'Connell to win Coach of the Year
What happenedBrian Daboll woncalled Kevin O'Connell0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- coach_of_the_year
- coach:
- Kevin O'Connell
- naive:
- the naive pick was Mike Vrabel, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Brian Daboll
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
2Award PicksPatrick MahomesKansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes to win Most Valuable Player
What happenedPatrick Mahomes won100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Aaron Rodgers, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Patrick Mahomes
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Patrick Mahomes
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
3Award PicksT.J. WattPittsburgh Steelers
T.J. Watt to win Defensive Player of the Year
What happenedNick Bosa woncalled T.J. Watt0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- defensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was T.J. Watt, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- T.J. Watt
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Nick Bosa
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
4Award PicksDerrick HenryTennessee Titans
Derrick Henry to win Comeback Player of the Year
What happenedGeno Smith woncalled Derrick Henry0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- comeback_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Joe Burrow, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Derrick Henry
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Geno Smith
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
5Award PicksJoe BurrowCincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow to win Offensive Player of the Year
What happenedJustin Jefferson woncalled Joe Burrow0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- offensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Cooper Kupp, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Joe Burrow
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Justin Jefferson
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
6Award PicksAidan HutchinsonDetroit Lions
Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year
What happenedSauce Gardner woncalled Aidan Hutchinson0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- defensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Micah Parsons, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Aidan Hutchinson
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Sauce Gardner
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
7Award PicksKenny PickettPittsburgh Steelers
Kenny Pickett to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
What happenedGarrett Wilson woncalled Kenny Pickett0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- offensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Ja'Marr Chase, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Kenny Pickett
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Garrett Wilson
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 7 settled calls, each counted once
14.3naive 0
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
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More award picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Willie Colon · Award Picks · Sam Darnold · Miss 0
Colon picked the Seahawks to win 24-14 with Sam Darnold as Super Bowl MVP.Danny Parkins · Award Picks · Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Miss 0
Parkins picked Seattle to win 27-16 with Jaxon Smith-Njigba as Super Bowl MVP.