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John GranatoSep 18, 2026

Despite the Texans' injuries at wide receiver, they picked Houston to beat Cincinnati in their upcoming game.

Said on air, transcribed by us · John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)Hear the original

0Miss · out of 100
Bengals 20–6What happenedBengals at Texans
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What John Granato said

I like the Texans over the Bengals.
Our reading: Houston Texans to beat Bengals
The episode
9.18 Hour 2: Where does the Texans WR room rank? + Lane Kiffin touches hot stoves
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidSep 18
  2. PlayedSep 20
  3. GradedSep 21

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Game Outcome PicksHouston Texans

    Houston Texans to beat Bengals

    What happenedBengals 20–6Bengals at Texans
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Texans by 3 · favorite pick, Texans 57%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    CIN
    score:
    20-6
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    HOU
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

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