Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

John Breech#34 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 13, 2026

Breech picks the Texans to upset the Bills in Houston, trusting Houston's defense to smother Josh Allen, and takes the Raiders to beat the Dolphins by at least a touchdown.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

1 of 2calls landed1 hit · 1 miss · all settled
50Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Games calledeveryone’s picks below
#34John Breech’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What John Breech said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I do trust the Texans' defense to smother Josh Allen.
John Breech, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
NFL Week 1 odds, predictions, expert picks: Who has edge in Bills-Texans? Can Saints upset Lions?
The original
Read the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidSep 13
  2. PlayedSep 13
  3. GradedSep 15
  1. 1Houston Texans to beat Bills“John Breech is taking the Texans to upset the Bills.”
  2. 2Las Vegas Raiders to beat Dolphins“This might be the Dolphins' best chance at a win all season, but they're still going to lose by at least a touchdown.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Houston Texans to beat Bills1Game Outcome PicksBills 36–31000
Las Vegas Raiders to beat Dolphins2Game Outcome PicksRaiders 27–131001000
2 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · all settled5050

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

2 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksHouston Texans

    Houston Texans to beat Bills

    What happenedBills 36–31Bills at Texans
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 13): Bills by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 50%, Texans 50%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    BUF
    score:
    36-31
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    HOU
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Game Outcome PicksLas Vegas Raiders

    Las Vegas Raiders to beat Dolphins

    What happenedRaiders 27–13Dolphins at Raiders
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 13): Raiders by 3 · favorite pick, Raiders 60%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    LV
    score:
    13-27
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    LV
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    LV
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    50naive 50

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these