Chris Brockman· Sep 1, 2025
Brockman opened the season-preview show with a slate of bold calls: the Cowboys collapse into a top-five draft pick after the Micah Parsons trade, the Giants are this year's out-of-nowhere team, the 49ers reach championship weekend with Brock Purdy as an MVP finalist, and the Patriots make the playoffs as part of four 2024-class quarterbacks reaching the postseason.
“The Cowboys are gonna finish last in the NFC East and have a top five pick in the twenty twenty six NFL draft.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 2 playoff picks, 1 award pick, 1 surprise team call and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 69.3 out of 100, against 18.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall picktop five pick (picks 1–5)They said
11What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Team Draft Slot CallsDallas CowboysSep 1, 2025
Dallas Cowboys to pick “top five pick” (picks 1–5)
“The Cowboys are gonna finish last in the NFC East and have a top five pick in the twenty twenty six NFL draft.”
Close · 77Scored 77.11a naive guess scored 73.84+6.54 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DAL
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 12 the year before
- skill:
- 6.54
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 77.11
- baseline:
- 73.84
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- top five pick (picks 1–5)
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksSan Francisco 49ersSep 1, 2025
San Francisco 49ers to make the playoffs
“The niners are going to championship weekend. Brock Purdy, MVP finalist.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- SF
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Award PicksBrock PurdySan Francisco 49ersSep 1, 2025
Brock Purdy to win MVP finalist
“The niners are going to championship weekend. Brock Purdy, MVP finalist.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Brock Purdy
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksNew England PatriotsSep 1, 2025
New England Patriots to make the playoffs
“What world do the Patriots make the playoffs in? This world? ... Yeah. The two that they make it in. Let's go. ... 10 wins should get in in the FC.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NE
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Surprise Team CallsNew York GiantsSep 1, 2025
New York Giants to beat expectations
“Every year, there's a team that comes out of nowhere... This year, this team was on it, but I don't know. It just seems like there's some vibes around this team. There's a coach we like. Is it the Giants?”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · San Francisco 49ersHit · 88Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Richie BradshawScore Predictions · San Francisco 49ersHit · 83Bradshaw picks the 49ers to beat the Cardinals in their Week 3 matchup, predicting a final score of 27-14 in San Francisco's favor.
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Broussard picked the Bills to beat the Chargers in a competitive, higher-scoring game, said the Chiefs will rout the Dolphins, and for upset alert parlayed the Patriots over the Jaguars and the Raiders over the Saints. He also restated his Cowboys-versus-Ravens Super Bowl matchup pick.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsMiss · 0In the winners-only chips segment Parkins backed the Patriots over the Jaguars, the Bengals over the Steelers and the Ravens over the Cowboys in Brazil. He also said New England has a real shot at a top-10 defense and that Kayshon/Romeo Dobbs will be the Patriots' number one target.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Dan "Buzz" WilsonPlayoff Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Wilson argued the Eagles' offseason approach of prioritizing 2026 and beyond doesn't mean a bad 2025 — he expects them to remain among the NFC's best teams and to make a deep playoff run rather than fall off to eight or nine wins.
- Craig StoutPlayoff Picks · Kansas City ChiefsMiss · 0Craig believes better execution from a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team will be enough to return them to the playoffs in the coming season, and he expects Tyler Algeier to land with Denver as a complement to RJ Harvey.
- Ross JacksonPlayoff Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Minnesota VikingsMiss · 0Eisen argues Ohio State will produce multiple top-10 picks — Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs — becoming the first school with three defensive players in the top 10, and that Styles will not be available at No. 12 to the Cowboys. He also thinks Fernando Mendoza is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick and expects the Raiders to draft him, and picks Trey Lance over Anthony Richardson to start a game first, Micah Parsons to fetch a bigger trade return than Maxx Crosby, Kirk Cousins as the released QB most likely to reach the playoffs, and J.J. McCarthy as the Vikings' Week 1 starter.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Green Bay PackersHit · 100Eisen agreed the Bears are a team of destiny who will win the NFC, insisted the Packers will make the playoffs and won't lose at home to the Ravens, said the Steelers should make the playoffs, and endorsed the view that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.