Eric Mangini#86 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 10, 2026

Mangini's upset alert was Carolina beating the heavily favored Rams; they also confirmed they have Buffalo ultimately winning in Jacksonville, and noted they had picked Justin Herbert as their MVP after Joe Burrow's injury.

Said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 3calls landed1 hit · 2 misses · all settled

33.3Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls

0A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

3 of 3Settlednone still waiting

#86Eric Mangini’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Eric Mangini said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I still think that there's a nice opportunity here for Carolina.

Eric Mangini, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: First Things First (podcast)
The episode: Miami beats Ole Miss, Wild Card Weekend preview, Most To Gain & Lose, Upset Alert & NIck’s Picks
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidJan 9
GradedAug 13–17

1Carolina Panthers to beat Rams“I still think that there's a nice opportunity here for Carolina... Carolina could do it again.”
2Buffalo Bills to beat Jaguars“So you got Trevor Lawrence being impactful, but the Bills ultimately winning. Yes.”
3Justin Herbert to win MVP“So I I picked Herbert to be my MVP after Burrow went down.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Skill
Carolina Panthers to beat Rams¹	Game Outcome Picks	—	0	0
Buffalo Bills to beat Jaguars²	Game Outcome Picks	—	100	+100
Justin Herbert to win MVP³	Award Picks	Matthew Stafford won	0	0
3 calls · 1 hit · 2 misses · all settled			33.3

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

3 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks and 1 award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 3 have settled, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Game Outcome Picks Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers to beat Rams
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
Closing line (Jan 10): Rams by 10 · underdog pick, Panthers about 1 in 5 (19%).
How this was scored
won:
LAR
score:
34-31
skill:
0
they picked:
CAR
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
CAR
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
2Game Outcome Picks Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to beat Jaguars
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
Closing line (Jan 11): Jaguars by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 47%, Jaguars 53%.
How this was scored
won:
BUF
score:
27-24
skill:
100
they picked:
BUF
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
JAX
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
3Award Picks Justin Herbert Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert to win MVP
What happenedMatthew Stafford woncalled Justin Herbert
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Justin Herbert
season:
2025
who won:
Matthew Stafford
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
33.3naive 0