Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Geoff SchwartzFeb 19, 2026

Jeff Schwartz agreed the Lions are a team they could back to go over 10.5 wins given their softer schedule, and suggested Seattle regresses to roughly a 10-7 season after losing offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak.

Said on air or in an interview · 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)Hear the original

0 of 2calls landed1 close call · 1 miss · all settled
40Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
25A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2 of 2Settlednone still waiting
0Waitingnot graded yet

What Geoff Schwartz said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
So I I could buy the Lions being over team.
Geoff Schwartz, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)
The episode
Hour 1: Brian & Geoff - Over/Under?
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidFeb 19
  2. GradedAug 5
  1. 1Seattle Seahawks to finish with 10 wins“it feels like a team that if they're Darnold's ten fifteen percent worse. The offense isn't as good. You lose a couple of guys in defensive free agency, and you're just not as good. Next season, that could be a ten and seven team.”
  2. 2Detroit Lions to finish with 11 wins“and the Lions do get a break this year of having that schedule that allows them to win games ... So I I could buy the Lions being over team.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Seattle Seahawks to finish with 10 wins1Season Win Totals14205+15
Detroit Lions to finish with 11 wins2Season Win Totals96045+15
2 calls · 1 close call · 1 miss · all settled4025

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

2 checkable claims — 2 season win totals — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 40 out of 100, against 25 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

wins
10They said
14What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. 1Season Win TotalsSeattle Seahawks

    Seattle Seahawks to finish with 10 wins

    What happened14called 10
    20Miss · naive 5
    20this call5a naive guess15better than naive1difficulty+15skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    SEA
    naive:
    9.25
    skill:
    15
    what happened:
    14
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    5
    accuracy:
    20
    baseline:
    5
    they said:
    10
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Season Win TotalsDetroit Lions

    Detroit Lions to finish with 11 wins

    What happened9called 11
    60Close · naive 45
    60this call45a naive guess15better than naive1difficulty+15skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    DET
    naive:
    11.75
    skill:
    15
    what happened:
    9
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    5
    accuracy:
    60
    baseline:
    45
    they said:
    11
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    40naive 25

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

More season win totals

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these