Mike MartzSep 6, 2022
Martz picked Justin Herbert MVP, Josh Allen OPOY, Aaron Donald DPOY, Skyy Moore OROY, Travon Walker DROY, Dak Prescott Comeback Player and Josh McDaniels Coach of the Year.
Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original
What Mike Martz said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromMike Martz, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
- Where it was published
- The 33rd Team
- The piece
- 2022 NFL Awards Predictions: MVP, Rookies of the Year, and More - The 33rd Team
- The original
- The copy as archived Sep 7, 2022
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.
- SaidSep 5, 2022
- GradedAug 5, 2026
- 1Dak Prescott to win Comeback Player of the Year“Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (1 vote: Martz)”
- 2Aaron Donald to win Defensive Player of the Year“1. Rams DT Aaron Donald (5 votes: Barber, Gannon, Martz, ...)”
- 3Travon Walker to win Defensive Rookie of the Year“2. Jaguars edge rusher Travon Walker (4 votes: Barber, Lewis, Martz, Smith)”
- 4Josh McDaniels to win Coach of the Year“T1. Raiders coach Josh McDaniels (3 votes: Cassel, Martz, Pagano)”
- 5Josh Allen to win Offensive Player of the Year“2. Bills QB Josh Allen (4 votes: Davis, Koetter, Martz, Zimmer)”
- 6Skyy Moore to win Offensive Rookie of the Year“Chiefs WR Skyy Moore (1 vote: Martz)”
- 7Justin Herbert to win Most Valuable Player“T2. Chargers QB Justin Herbert (3 votes: Matt Cassel, Mike Martz, Mike Tannenbaum)”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott to win Comeback Player of the Year1 | Award Picks | Geno Smith won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aaron Donald to win Defensive Player of the Year2 | Award Picks | Nick Bosa won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Travon Walker to win Defensive Rookie of the Year3 | Award Picks | Sauce Gardner won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Josh McDaniels to win Coach of the Year4 | Coach Award Picks | Brian Daboll won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Josh Allen to win Offensive Player of the Year5 | Award Picks | Justin Jefferson won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Skyy Moore to win Offensive Rookie of the Year6 | Award Picks | Garrett Wilson won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Justin Herbert to win Most Valuable Player7 | Award Picks | Patrick Mahomes won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 calls · 7 misses · all settled | 0 | 0 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive7 checkable claims — 6 award picks and 1 coach award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 13 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Award PicksDak PrescottDallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott to win Comeback Player of the Year
What happenedGeno Smith woncalled Dak Prescott0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- comeback_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Joe Burrow, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Dak Prescott
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Geno Smith
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
2Award PicksAaron DonaldLos Angeles Rams
Aaron Donald to win Defensive Player of the Year
What happenedNick Bosa woncalled Aaron Donald0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- defensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was T.J. Watt, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Aaron Donald
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Nick Bosa
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
3Award PicksTravon WalkerJacksonville Jaguars
Travon Walker to win Defensive Rookie of the Year
What happenedSauce Gardner woncalled Travon Walker0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- defensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Micah Parsons, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Travon Walker
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Sauce Gardner
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
4Coach Award PicksLas Vegas Raiders
Josh McDaniels to win Coach of the Year
What happenedBrian Daboll woncalled Josh McDaniels0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- coach_of_the_year
- coach:
- Josh McDaniels
- naive:
- the naive pick was Mike Vrabel, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Brian Daboll
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
5Award PicksJosh AllenBuffalo Bills
Josh Allen to win Offensive Player of the Year
What happenedJustin Jefferson woncalled Josh Allen0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- offensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Cooper Kupp, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Justin Jefferson
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
6Award PicksSkyy MooreKansas City Chiefs
Skyy Moore to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
What happenedGarrett Wilson woncalled Skyy Moore0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- offensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Ja'Marr Chase, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Skyy Moore
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Garrett Wilson
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
7Award PicksJustin HerbertLos Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert to win Most Valuable Player
What happenedPatrick Mahomes woncalled Justin Herbert0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Aaron Rodgers, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Justin Herbert
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Patrick Mahomes
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 7 settled calls, each counted once
0naive 0
Who this take is about
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, Aaron Donald, Los Angeles Rams, Travon Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs, Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.
More award picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Willie Colon · Award Picks · Sam Darnold · Miss 0
Colon picked the Seahawks to win 24-14 with Sam Darnold as Super Bowl MVP.Danny Parkins · Award Picks · Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Miss 0
Parkins picked Seattle to win 27-16 with Jaxon Smith-Njigba as Super Bowl MVP.