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Tyler Sullivan#27 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 13, 2026

Sullivan takes the Jaguars to beat the Browns, doubting Deshaun Watson, and takes the Eagles over the Commanders at home.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

100Hit · out of 100
Jaguars 34–10What happenedBrowns at Jaguars
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
#27Tyler Sullivan’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Tyler Sullivan said

Tyler Sullivan is taking the Jaguars to pounce on the lowly Browns this Sunday.
Our reading: Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Browns
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
NFL Week 1 odds, predictions, expert picks: Who has edge in Bills-Texans? Can Saints upset Lions?
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidSep 13
  2. PlayedSep 13
  3. GradedSep 15

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Game Outcome PicksJacksonville Jaguars

    Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Browns

    What happenedJaguars 34–10Browns at Jaguars
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 13): Jaguars by 8.5 · favorite pick, Jaguars about 4 in 5 (79%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    JAX
    score:
    10-34
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    JAX
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    JAX
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

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