Cynthia Frelund· Jul 22, 2025
Frelund presented her top-10 fantasy quarterback rankings for the season, headed by Josh Allen with Joe Burrow second, and added Jared Goff at No. 11. She also predicted 11 wins for the 49ers, that Burrow leads the league in passing touchdowns (possibly up to 50), and expects improvement/surprises from the Raiders and Patriots.
“This guy is number one last season, He'll be number one next season until he's not the rushing plus passing capabilities of Josh Allen.”
said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
6 checkable claims — 2 surprise team calls, 1 fantasy ranking, 1 player season number, 1 positional finishe and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 33.8 out of 100, against 18.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Fantasy RankingsJul 22, 2025
“At number ten, we've got Rock Purty... At number nine... It's Baker Mayfield... At number eight, we got our sophomore bow Nicks... At number seven, it's Kyler Murray... at number six, Patrick Mahomes... number five. Jayden Daniels... Lamar Jackson comes in at number four... At number three, Tush push still there... Jalen Hurts... So Joe Burrow... and at number one... Josh Allen... Jared Goff's eleven.”
Close · 55Scored 55a naive guess scored 50+10 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 10
- placed:
- 11
- season:
- 2025
- players:
- 11
- accuracy:
- 55
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 11: 55
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Joe Burrow to record 50 passing tds
“So it could get up to fifty this year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 20.05-40.1 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 28.32
- skill:
- -40.1
- what happened:
- 17
- player:
- Joe Burrow
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 20.05
- predicted:
- 50
- statistic:
- passing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 43
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 13.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Positional FinishesJoe BurrowCincinnati BengalsJul 22, 2025
Joe Burrow to finish top 1 at his position, by passing tds
“This is a guy who I project to lead the league in passing touchdowns and it's not even close.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Joe Burrow
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 1
- actual finish:
- 24
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 1
- Season Win TotalsSan Francisco 49ersJul 22, 2025
San Francisco 49ers to finish with 11 wins
“I had the forty nine ers with at least double digit wins, probably eleven. That's the number.”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 5+150 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- SF
- naive:
- 7.25
- skill:
- 150
- what happened:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 5
- predicted:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Surprise Team CallsLas Vegas RaidersJul 22, 2025
Las Vegas Raiders to beat expectations
“I think we're going to see a Raiders team that is much, much, much improved, very quickly because of the impact of getting the right voices in there”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Surprise Team CallsNew England PatriotsJul 22, 2025
New England Patriots to beat expectations
“I want to know who the Patriots are. I think that's a team that could really be a really big problem. I don't think they supplant the Bills, but there's other teams in that division that they could surprise and sneak up on.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · San Francisco 49ersHit · 88Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
More surprise team calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Steven RuizSurprise Team Calls · Houston TexansPendingRuiz expects the Texans to repeat last year's turnaround, saying their defense and schedule will let them pile up wins and stay in the playoff race all season.
- Henry McKennaSurprise Team Calls · Houston TexansPendingMcKenna picks the Texans as the 0-2 team most likely to recover, favoring them over the Buccaneers because he believes the AFC South is weaker than the NFC South.
- Ben ArthurSurprise Team Calls · Houston TexansPendingArthur also lands on the Texans, arguing their defense will return to elite form and a soft upcoming stretch will get Houston's season back on track.
- Eric WilliamsSurprise Team Calls · Los Angeles ChargersPendingWilliams picks the Chargers as the 0-2 team to rebound, comparing it to the 2017 team that started 0-4 and finished 9-7, and suggests they will rise up on the road against Buffalo rather than collapse.
- Greg AumanSurprise Team Calls · Houston TexansPendingAuman names the Texans as the 0-2 team best positioned to turn their season around and get back into the playoff race, citing their history of slow starts and an elite defense. He also references his preseason pick of the Chargers to win the Super Bowl.
- Ralph VacchianoSurprise Team Calls · Indianapolis ColtsPendingVacchiano picks the Colts over the Texans as the 0-2 team most likely to rebound, trusting their offense with Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor to keep them in the playoff race.