Sexton predicted Ron DeSantis would win reelection as Florida governor by double digits, around ten points, and that Lee Zeldin would pull out a win in the New York governor's race.

2 checkable claims — 1 race margin and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 2 have settled, averaging 3 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

2 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

• Race MarginsNov 5, 2022

  “Ron de santiss I turned out it on the show. He's gonna win by double digits. I think ten points is the number in Florida”

  Miss · 6Scored 6a naive guess scored 0+6 skill
  How this was scored

  race:

  2022-governor-fl

  election year:

  2022

  skill:

  6

  topic:

  elections

  what happened:

  19.4

  result from:

  wikipedia-2022-governor

  who won:

  Ron DeSantis

  zero credit this far off:

  10

  what they counted:

  margin in points

  whose number:

  Ron DeSantis

  accuracy:

  6

  baseline:

  0

  race name:

  2022 Florida gubernatorial election

  decided in the:

  general

  they said:

  10

  days before the vote when called:

  2

  difficulty:

  1

  they won:

  yes

  the naive guess:

  the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it

  Election Day:

  2022-11-08

  the certified margin:

  19.4

  their party:

  Republican

  the naive guess said:

  0

  Think this is wrong?

• Race WinnersNov 5, 2022

  “I think Lee Zelden is gonna scratch out a massive win in New York”

  Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
  How this was scored

  right:

  no

  race:

  2022-governor-ny

  election year:

  2022

  skill:

  −100

  topic:

  elections

  held going in by:

  Democratic

  result from:

  wikipedia-2022-governor

  who won:

  Kathy Hochul

  accuracy:

  0

  baseline:

  100

  race name:

  2022 New York gubernatorial election

  decided in the:

  general

  they said:

  Lee Zeldin

  days before the vote when called:

  2

  difficulty:

  1

  the winner's party:

  Democratic

  the naive guess:

  the party holding the seat keeps it

  Election Day:

  2022-11-08

  the result is:

  certified

  the party they named:

  Republican

  Think this is wrong?

More race margins

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

• Tom BevanRace MarginsHit · 81
  Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.
• Doug SchoenRace MarginsHit · 100
  Schoen predicted a decisive Republican victory: the House with a 30-to-35-seat majority and the Senate with roughly 51 or 52 seats, while saying Kathy Hochul holds a clear advantage in New York and Ron DeSantis wins big in Florida.
• Spencer KimballRace MarginsClose · 48
  Kimball said the House looks set to flip to Republicans, and expected heavy ticket-splitting in New Hampshire, with Republican Sununu winning the governorship by nearly 20 points while Democrats hold the state's Senate seat by three or four points.
• Ben ShapiroRace MarginsMiss · 6
  Ahead of the midterm elections, Shapiro predicted Republican wins in several marquee races: Marco Rubio beating Val Demings in Florida's Senate race, Brian Kemp defeating Stacey Abrams in Georgia, Ron DeSantis beating Charlie Crist by roughly 10 points, and Kari Lake winning the Arizona governorship.
• Steve DeaceRace MarginsMiss · 36
  Deace forecast a "red tsunami": Republicans gaining roughly 54 House seats, winning 56 Senate seats, and capturing governorships in 36 states including New York, Minnesota, Colorado and Pennsylvania. He also said Ron DeSantis would set a Florida record for the largest GOP gubernatorial margin, that Chuck Grassley would not lose in Iowa, and that Kim Reynolds would win big.
• Jason JohnsonRace MarginsMiss · 36
  Johnson predicted Republicans would take both chambers, ending with about 230 House seats and about 53 Senate seats, and picked Lee Zeldin in New York and a Republican win in the New Hampshire Senate race as his biggest upsets. He also agreed DeSantis would break Florida's GOP gubernatorial margin record.