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Nick Wright#49 of 87 NFL pundits · Dec 24, 2025

On the Christmas-week gambling show, Nick Wright made five picks and, in doing so, predicted outright wins for Dallas (a blowout of Washington), Jacksonville over Indianapolis, Pittsburgh over Cleveland, Buffalo over Philadelphia and Chicago over San Francisco, plus a Rams win at Atlanta and a Tampa Bay win at Miami. They also said Philadelphia will end up as the No. 3 seed.

Said on air or in an interview · What's Wright? with Nick Wright (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 6calls landed2 hits · 4 misses · all settled
33.3Average accuracyout of 100, across 6 calls
66.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
6 of 6Settlednone still waiting
#49Nick Wright’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Nick Wright said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Dallas is gonna blow out the Commanders.
Nick Wright, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
What's Wright? with Nick Wright (podcast)
The episode
What's Wright - NFL Week 17 Predictions: Eagles-Bills, Bears-49ers, Ravens-Packers, Broncos-Chiefs | Nick Wright
The original
Hear the original
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The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidDec 24, 2025
  2. GradedAug 7–17, 2026
  1. 1Dallas Cowboys to beat Washington“They're gonna move the ball. Dallas is gonna blow out the Commanders. I love the Cowboys minus six and a half”
  2. 2Philadelphia Eagles to take the top seed“they're the two or the three seed, and they are probably the three seed”
  3. 3Buffalo Bills to beat Philly“I think Buffalo is a lot better than Philly. They're at home... I'll take Buffalo”
  4. 4Chicago Bears to beat San Francisco“I think the Bears can win that game outright.”
  5. 5Los Angeles Rams to beat Atlanta“we got the Rams at Atlanta. Atlanta's eight point dogs. That line's exactly right. I'm sure to win by about a touchdown”
  6. 6Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Miami“you got Tampa Bay at Miami... They should win... assuming Tampa's gonna beat Miami”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Dallas Cowboys to beat Washington1Game Outcome Picks—1000+111
Philadelphia Eagles to take the top seed2Seeding, Byes and Home Field—1001000
Buffalo Bills to beat Philly3Game Outcome Picks—000
Chicago Bears to beat San Francisco4Game Outcome Picks—0100−111
Los Angeles Rams to beat Atlanta5Game Outcome Picks—0100−111
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Miami6Game Outcome Picks—0100−111
6 calls · 2 hits · 4 misses · all settled33.366.7

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

6 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks and 1 seeding, byes and home field — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 6 have settled, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksDallas Cowboys

    Dallas Cowboys to beat Washington

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.11difficulty+111skill

    Closing line (Dec 25): Cowboys by 8.5 · favorite pick, Cowboys about 4 in 5 (80%). Graded on who won, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    won:
    DAL
    score:
    30-23
    skill:
    111
    they picked:
    DAL
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    WAS
    difficulty:
    1.11
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    2
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Seeding, Byes and Home FieldPhiladelphia Eagles

    Philadelphia Eagles to take the top seed

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.11difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    PHI
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    checked as:
    seeds 2–4 host a wild-card game — the bracket cannot separate them further
    actual tier:
    host
    difficulty:
    1.11
    the naive guess:
    where they finished last season (host)
    weeks in the season:
    18
    claimed seed:
    3
    claimed tier:
    host
    weeks left when called:
    2
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Game Outcome PicksBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills to beat Philly

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.11difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Dec 28): Bills by 3 · favorite pick, Bills 60%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    PHI
    score:
    13-12
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    BUF
    difficulty:
    1.11
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    2
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Game Outcome PicksChicago Bears

    Chicago Bears to beat San Francisco

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.11difficulty−111skill

    Closing line (Dec 28): 49ers by 3.5 · underdog pick, Bears about 1 in 3 (36%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    SF
    score:
    38-42
    skill:
    −111
    they picked:
    CHI
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    SF
    difficulty:
    1.11
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    2
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles Rams

    Los Angeles Rams to beat Atlanta

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.11difficulty−111skill

    Closing line (Dec 29): Rams by 7.5 · favorite pick, Rams about 3 in 4 (76%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    ATL
    score:
    24-27
    skill:
    −111
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    ATL
    difficulty:
    1.11
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    2
    Think this is wrong?

  6. 6Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay Buccaneers

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Miami

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.11difficulty−111skill

    Closing line (Dec 28): Buccaneers by 5.5 · favorite pick, Buccaneers about 2 in 3 (69%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    MIA
    score:
    17-20
    skill:
    −111
    they picked:
    TB
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    MIA
    difficulty:
    1.11
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    2
    Think this is wrong?
  7. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 6 settled calls, each counted once

    33.3naive 66.7

Who this take is about

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