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Josh Holmes#21 of 21 election pundits · Oct 30, 2026

Holmes said Andy Barr is headed to the Senate from Kentucky, and that Republicans are almost certainly going to lose the House majority, which they said would take a near magic trick to hold.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Ruthless PodcastHear the original

2 of 2calls landed2 hits · all settled
100Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
1Races calledevery call on each below
#21Josh Holmes’s rankof 21 ranked election pundits

What Josh Holmes said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I think it's sort of conventional wisdom at this point that the house is probably not gonna go our way.
Josh Holmes, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Ruthless Podcast
The episode
Insider’s Guide to Election Night: How to Know Who’s Winning
The original
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  1. SaidOct 30
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10
  1. 1Andy Barr to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kentucky“incumbent Andy Barr, he's now the senate republican, nominee and he's about to be United States senator from the Great Commonwealth Of Kentucky.”
  2. 2Control of Congress“the house is probably not gonna go our way. It may be slim... there's an awful lot of polling and things that I've seen that would suggest that, man, it would have to be something just short of a magic trick Right. In order to hold that bad boy.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Andy Barr to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kentucky1Race WinnersAndy Barr won1001000
“the house is probably not gonna go our way. It may be slim...…”2Control of Congress—1000+101
2 calls · 2 hits · all settled10050

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

2 checkable claims — 1 control of congres and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Race Winners

    Andy Barr to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kentucky

    What happenedAndy Barr woncalled, not yet certified
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.01difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2026-senate-ky
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Republican
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026
    who won:
    Andy Barr
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2026 U.S. Senate election in Kentucky
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Andy Barr
    days before the vote when called:
    4
    difficulty:
    1.01
    the winner's party:
    Republican
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Control of Congress

    “the house is probably not gonna go our way. It may be slim... there's an awful lot of polling and things that I've seen that would suggest that, man, it would have to be something just short of a magic trick Right. In order to hold that bad boy.”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.01difficulty+101skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    101
    topic:
    elections
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
    chamber:
    2026-house
    who controls it:
    Democratic
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Democratic
    days before the vote when called:
    4
    difficulty:
    1.01
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    who controlled it before:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    100naive 50

The race in this take

every call on each
Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.