Rich Eisen#38 of 87 NFL pundits · Nov 25, 2024
Eisen went all in on Saquon Barkley as 2024 NFL MVP, said they'd still keep the Lions ahead of the Eagles atop their power rankings, called the Texans winning the AFC South a near-certainty, and agreed the AFC playoff field is already set with those same seven teams.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original
What Rich Eisen said
Saquon Barkley is the MVP of the National Football League in 2024.
- Where it was said
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)
- The episode
- NFL Week 12: Saquon will be the next NFL MVP
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidNov 25, 2024
- GradedAug 13–17, 2026
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division Winners | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Playoff Picks | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Power Rankings | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Award Picks | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| All | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
How each call scored
10 checkable claims — 7 playoff picks, 1 award pick, 1 division winner and 1 power ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 10 have settled, averaging 90 out of 100, against 70 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Division Winners1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
Houston Texans to win the division
“The only thing that we're sure of with the Texans right now is that when they win the division, they will be the first playoff game on the Saturday”
100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.39 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1.39
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 7
- won the division:
- yes
Playoff Picks7 hitsShow ▸Hide ▾
- Made the playoffs100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.39 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- BUF
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.39
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 7
- Made the playoffs100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.39 difficulty = +139 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- DEN
- skill:
- 139
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.39
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 7
- Made the playoffs100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.39 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- HOU
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.39
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 7
- Made the playoffs100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.39 difficulty = +139 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- LAC
- skill:
- 139
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.39
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 7
Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs
“The Chiefs? Check. ... this is not an overreaction to say the AFC playoff field is set.”
Made the playoffs100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.39 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- KC
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.39
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 7
- Made the playoffs100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.39 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- PIT
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.39
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 7
Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs
“Raven's check. Oh, man. That is not an overreaction.”
Made the playoffs100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.39 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- BAL
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.39
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 7
Power Rankings1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
“I don't believe I'm gonna have them number one on my power rankings list on Wednesday because I don't believe the Lions performed so poorly in Indianapolis that they would be knocked off”
100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.39 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 1.39
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 7
Award Picks1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Saquon Barkley to win MVP
“Saquon Barkley is the MVP of the National Football League in 2024.”
Josh Allen woncalled Saquon Barkley0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.39 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Saquon Barkley
- season:
- 2024
- who won:
- Josh Allen
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.39
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 7
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Ross Jackson · Playoff Picks · New Orleans Saints · Miss 0
Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.Chris Brockman · Playoff Picks · Chicago Bears · Hit 100
Brockman argued the Eagles' defense is the NFL's best and will drag a mediocre offense to the NFC championship, that the NFC North sends only two teams to the playoffs with the Bears among them, that the Rams are the league's best team, that a healthy Brock Purdy makes the 49ers an NFC threat who will beat the Saints and Falcons, and that the Panthers win the NFC South.Chris Brockman · Playoff Picks · Minnesota Vikings · Miss 0
Brockman argued the Seahawks are the NFC's best team and will land the No. 1 seed, that Jacksonville will reach 11 wins and steal the AFC South from Indianapolis, that JJ McCarthy will lead the Vikings to the playoffs, and that Matthew Stafford will be an MVP finalist.Chris Brockman · Playoff Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Brockman doubled down that the Ravens will win the AFC North, named Jonathan Taylor the NFL's MVP, locked in their seven NFC playoff teams with the Eagles as the NFC East's lone qualifier, and predicted Justin Fields will be the Jets' starting quarterback in 2026.Chris Brockman · Playoff Picks · Carolina Panthers · Hit 100
Brockman argued the Broncos win the AFC West and a playoff game, that either the Colts or Patriots will be the AFC's No. 1 seed, that the Chiefs are the best team in the NFL, that the Bears win the NFC North, and that the Panthers make the playoffs.