Rich Eisen· Nov 25, 2024
Eisen went all in on Saquon Barkley as 2024 NFL MVP, said he'd still keep the Lions ahead of the Eagles atop his power rankings, called the Texans winning the AFC South a near-certainty, and agreed the AFC playoff field is already set with those same seven teams.
“Saquon Barkley is the MVP of the National Football League in 2024.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
10 checkable claims — 7 playoff picks, 1 award pick, 1 division winner and 1 power ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 10 have settled, averaging 90 out of 100, against 70 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
10 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersHouston TexansNov 25, 2024
Houston Texans to win the division
“The only thing that we're sure of with the Texans right now is that when they win the division, they will be the first playoff game on the Saturday”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1.39
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 7
- won the division:
- yes
- Playoff PicksBuffalo BillsNov 25, 2024
Buffalo Bills to make the playoffs
“Bills, check.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BUF
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.39
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 7
- Playoff PicksDenver BroncosNov 25, 2024
Denver Broncos to make the playoffs
“Chargers and Broncos.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+139 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DEN
- skill:
- 139
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.39
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 7
- Playoff PicksHouston TexansNov 25, 2024
Houston Texans to make the playoffs
“Texans check”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- HOU
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.39
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 7
- Playoff PicksLos Angeles ChargersNov 25, 2024
Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs
“Chargers and Broncos.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+139 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAC
- skill:
- 139
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.39
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 7
- Power RankingsNov 25, 2024
“I don't believe I'm gonna have them number one on my power rankings list on Wednesday because I don't believe the Lions performed so poorly in Indianapolis that they would be knocked off”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 1.39
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 7
- Playoff PicksKansas City ChiefsNov 25, 2024
Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs
“The Chiefs? Check. ... this is not an overreaction to say the AFC playoff field is set.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- KC
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.39
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 7
- Award PicksSaquon BarkleyPhiladelphia EaglesNov 25, 2024
Saquon Barkley to win MVP
“Saquon Barkley is the MVP of the National Football League in 2024.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Saquon Barkley
- season:
- 2024
- winner:
- Josh Allen
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.39
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 7
- Playoff PicksPittsburgh SteelersNov 25, 2024
Pittsburgh Steelers to make the playoffs
“Steelers, I'll I'll check them.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- PIT
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.39
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 7
- Playoff PicksBaltimore RavensNov 25, 2024
Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs
“Raven's check. Oh, man. That is not an overreaction.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BAL
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.39
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 7
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ross JacksonPlayoff Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Dwaine BoardPlayoff Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100Board argues the 49ers can still make the playoffs even if Trent Williams leaves, expects Williams to be brought back, and favors drafting a wide receiver at No. 27 over an offensive tackle.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Chicago BearsHit · 100Brockman argued the Eagles' defense is the NFL's best and will drag a mediocre offense to the NFC championship, that the NFC North sends only two teams to the playoffs with the Bears among them, that the Rams are the league's best team, that a healthy Brock Purdy makes the 49ers an NFC threat who will beat the Saints and Falcons, and that the Panthers win the NFC South.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Minnesota VikingsMiss · 0Brockman argued the Seahawks are the NFC's best team and will land the No. 1 seed, that Jacksonville will reach 11 wins and steal the AFC South from Indianapolis, that JJ McCarthy will lead the Vikings to the playoffs, and that Matthew Stafford will be an MVP finalist.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Brockman doubled down that the Ravens will win the AFC North, named Jonathan Taylor the NFL's MVP, locked in his seven NFC playoff teams with the Eagles as the NFC East's lone qualifier, and predicted Justin Fields will be the Jets' starting quarterback in 2026.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Brockman argued the Broncos win the AFC West and a playoff game, that either the Colts or Patriots will be the AFC's No. 1 seed, that the Chiefs are the best team in the NFL, that the Bears win the NFC North, and that the Panthers make the playoffs.