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Asma KhalidOct 11, 2024

Khalid framed Colorado as out of reach for Trump in the presidential race, saying they are not realistically going to carry the state despite campaigning there.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The NPR Politics PodcastHear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Kamala Harris wonWhat happenedcertified result
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Asma Khalid said

Colorado is not a real competitive state that Trump is realistically gonna win.
Our reading: Harris to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Colorado
Where it was said
The NPR Politics Podcast
The episode
Roundup: Activists Pitch Women — Secretly Vote For Harris
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidOct 11, 2024
  2. Election DayNov 5, 2024
  3. GradedOct 9, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    Harris to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Colorado

    What happenedKamala Harris woncertified result
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.03difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2024-president-co
    election year:
    2024
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    fec-2024-president
    who won:
    Kamala Harris
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2024 U.S. presidential election in Colorado
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Kamala Harris
    days before the vote when called:
    24
    difficulty:
    1.03
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2024-11-05
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?

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