Nick Wright#49 of 87 NFL pundits · Aug 28, 2025

Wright picked Chiefs over 11.5, Buccaneers over 9.5, Raiders over 6.5 (plus a Raiders playoff berth), Broncos under 9.5, 49ers under 10.5, Cowboys under 8, Jaguars over 7.5, and Bengals under 9.5 with Zac Taylor fired after missing the playoffs. They also had Commanders and Eagles both 11-6 with Washington winning the NFC East.

Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 9calls landed1 hit · 1 close call · 7 misses · 1 too vague to check

18.9Average accuracyout of 100, across 9 calls

49.8A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

9 of 10Settlednone still waiting · 1 too vague to check

#49Nick Wright’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Nick Wright said

I'll go with the Chiefs to hit their over like they do literally every single year.

Nick Wright, the lead quote

Where it was said: Around the NFL (podcast)
The episode: Over/Unders with Nick Wright
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidAug 28, 2025
GradedAug 7–Oct 9, 2026

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Close	Misses	Too vague
Season Win Totals	1	1	4	1
Division Winners	0	0	1	0
Team Draft Slot Calls	0	0	1	0
Playoff Picks	0	0	1	0
All	1	1	7	1

How each call scored

10 claims — 7 season win totals, 1 division winner, 1 playoff pick and 1 team draft slot call — the 9 we can check each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 9 calls we can check have settled, averaging 18.9 out of 100, against 49.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The other one was too vague to check, so it is not graded.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

wins

over 11.5They said

6What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

Season Win Totals1 hit · 1 close call · 4 misses · 1 too vague to checkShow ▸

Kansas City Chiefs to finish with 12 wins
“that is the nobody believes in US underdog Kansas City Chiefs to go over eleven and a half wins”
Kansas City Chiefs
6called over 11.5
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
team:
KC
naive:
11.75
skill:
0
what happened:
6
scored:
hit or miss on the line
season:
2025
window:
12 to 17
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
over
they said:
over 11.5
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 10 wins
“that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over nine and a half”
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8called over 9.5
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
How this was scored
team:
TB
naive:
9.25
skill:
−200
what happened:
8
scored:
hit or miss on the line
season:
2025
window:
10 to 17
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
under
they said:
over 9.5
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Washington Commanders to finish with 11 wins
“So I had the Commanders and the Eagles both eleven and six.”
Washington Commanders
5called 11
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
team:
WAS
naive:
10.25
skill:
0
what happened:
5
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
they said:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Philadelphia Eagles to finish with 11 wins
“So I had the Commanders and the Eagles both eleven and six.”
Philadelphia Eagles
11called 11
100Hit
100 − 95 naive = 5 × 2 difficulty = +10 skill
How this was scored
team:
PHI
naive:
11.25
skill:
10
what happened:
11
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
95
they said:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars to finish with 10 wins
“the Jaguars over seven and a half... I think they can get to ten. So I will go over Jacksonville.”
Jacksonville Jaguars
13called 10
40Close
40 − 0 naive = 40 × 2 difficulty = +80 skill
How this was scored
team:
JAX
naive:
6.25
skill:
80
what happened:
13
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
40
baseline:
0
they said:
10
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Las Vegas Raiders to finish with 7 wins
“And that is the Las Vegas Raiders... I need seven wins for this. I think the Raiders over is a very very healthy bet.”
Las Vegas Raiders
3called 7
20Miss
20 − 35 naive = −15 × 2 difficulty = −30 skill
How this was scored
team:
LV
naive:
6.25
skill:
−30
what happened:
3
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
20
baseline:
35
they said:
7
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
“There's two teams in that division that could have the number one pick of the draft... The Saints, I do think will be that bad.”
New Orleans Saints
—Too vague to check
Too vague to check: we could not tell what would count as right, so it stays on the record without a score.
Think this is wrong?

Division Winners1 missShow ▸

Washington Commanders to win the division
“the Commander's baith on strength of scheduled tiebreaker or they're gonna win the division”
Washington Commanders
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
−200
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
WAS
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
PHI
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this is wrong?

Team Draft Slot Calls1 missShow ▸

Indianapolis Colts to pick at number 1
“Yes, I think they could have the number one pick of the draft.”
Indianapolis Colts
Picked at 53called 1
10.51Miss
10.51 − 18.46 naive = −7.95 × 2 difficulty = −15.9 skill
How this was scored
team:
IND
draft:
2026
naive:
they picked 14 the year before
skill:
−15.9
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
10.51
baseline:
18.46
actual pick:
53
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
predicted pick:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?

Playoff Picks1 missShow ▸

Las Vegas Raiders to make the playoffs
“And listen, I on my show, I picked the Raiders to make the playoffs.”
Las Vegas Raiders
Missed the playoffs
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
How this was scored
team:
LV
skill:
−200
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
no
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?