Nick FergusonSep 8, 2026
Ferguson sets Denver's floor at 10 wins, picks the Broncos to win in Kansas City, forecasts a Broncos-Rams Super Bowl at SoFi, and says David Montgomery will be Houston's RB1.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Broncos (podcast)Hear the original
What Nick Ferguson said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromBut it's still going to be 10 wins or more for the Denver Broncos.
- Where it was said
- Locked On Broncos (podcast)
- The episode
- BRONCOS SQUAD SHOW: Ultimate 2026 Season Preview, Broncos vs Chiefs Picks & BOLD NFL Takes
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 8
- PlayedSep 14
- GradedSep 16
- 1Denver Broncos to beat Kansas City Chiefs“Yeah. I got the Broncos definitely, winning this game, but it's not gonna be a easy one.”
- 2Denver Broncos to reach the Super Bowl“So far, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl for the battle for it all.”
- 3Los Angeles Rams to reach the Super Bowl“this is the same team that the Broncos will face in the Super Bowl and SoFi ... Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl”
- 4David Montgomery to be 1st on the depth chart“what they decided to do to help CJ Shroud was they brought in David Montgomery ... but now he would be the the the RB one”
- 5Denver Broncos to finish with 10 wins“I have the bottom at or the floor at 10 wins. ... But it is not gonna be the same, but it's still going to be 10 wins or more for the Denver Broncos.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos to beat Kansas City Chiefs1 | Game Outcome Picks | Chiefs 31–10 | 0 | 100 | −200 | |
| Denver Broncos to reach the Super Bowl2 | Conference Champions | — | — | — | — | |
| Los Angeles Rams to reach the Super Bowl3 | Conference Champions | — | — | — | — | |
| David Montgomery to be 1st on the depth chart4 | Depth Chart Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Denver Broncos to finish with 10 wins5 | Season Win Totals | — | — | — | — | |
| 5 calls · 1 miss · 4 waiting | 0 | 100 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive5 checkable claims — 2 conference champions, 1 depth chart call, 1 game outcome pick and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
1 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 2 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room on every one.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Where this call stands in the room
David Montgomery · 2026 season14 calls from 10 pundits between 1 and 1. Nick Ferguson said 1. the room's median is 1. not settled yet
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
1Game Outcome PicksDenver Broncos
Denver Broncos to beat Kansas City Chiefs
What happenedChiefs 31–10Broncos at Chiefs0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×2difficulty=−200skillClosing line (Sep 14): Chiefs by 2.5 · underdog pick, Broncos 46%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 10-31
- skill:
- −200
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
2Conference ChampionsDenver Broncos
Denver Broncos to reach the Super Bowl
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
3Conference ChampionsLos Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to reach the Super Bowl
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
4Depth Chart CallsDavid MontgomeryHouston Texans
David Montgomery to be 1st on the depth chart
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
5Season Win TotalsDenver Broncos
Denver Broncos to finish with 10 wins
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
The game in this take
every pundit’s pick on eachWho this take is about
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.Bobby Skinner · Trade and Signing Calls · Stefon Diggs · Miss 0
Skinner predicted Daniel Jones signs with and wins the starting job in Indianapolis, Milton Williams to New England, Lavonte David back to Tampa, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams to the Giants, DJ Reid to Arizona, Hassan Reddick to Washington and Justin Fields staying in Pittsburgh, plus alternates they had listed.Colin Cowherd · Trade and Signing Calls · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Cowherd predicts Matt Stafford stays with the Rams rather than moving on, and says Travis Hunter may underachieve because they're being asked to play both ways — Cowherd doubts they're a No. 1 receiver and would slot them as a No. 2 receiver while being a No. 1 corner.Colin Cowherd · Trade and Signing Calls · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Cowherd believes Matt Stafford's public negotiation posturing means he ultimately stays in Los Angeles, and he flags Travis Hunter as a high draft pick who could underachieve because trying to play both cornerback and receiver full-time will hurt him.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Damonza Byrd · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says they believe New England will win in Denver even though they are taking the Broncos with the points.Nick Wright · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; they also pick New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. They call Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.Derek Murphy · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.Connor "Boston Connor" Campbell · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
Connor expects a tight first half in Denver before New England pulls away in the second half and advances to the Super Bowl.Gregg Rosenthal · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Rosenthal picks the Patriots to beat the Broncos in a close, low-scoring AFC Championship in Denver (while liking Denver to cover the 4.5 points), takes the Seahawks over the Rams in a defensive NFC Championship they peg around 23-19, and forecasts a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl.