Gregg Rosenthal#39 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 23, 2026

Rosenthal picks the Patriots to beat the Broncos in a close, low-scoring AFC Championship in Denver (while liking Denver to cover the 4.5 points), takes the Seahawks over the Rams in a defensive NFC Championship they peg around 23-19, and forecasts a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl.

Said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast)Hear the original

5 of 5calls landed5 hits · all settled

100Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls

39.1A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

5 of 5Settlednone still waiting

#39Gregg Rosenthal’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Gregg Rosenthal said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

That's my prediction for the Super Bowl this year.

Gregg Rosenthal, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Move the Sticks (podcast)
The episode: Championship Weekend Picks with Cynthia Frelund + Ravens Hire Jesse Minter as Head Coach
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidJan 23
GradedAug 5–17

1Seattle Seahawks to reach the Super Bowl“because the Patriots Seahawks. That's my prediction for the Super Bowl this year.”
2Seattle Seahawks 23 — Rams 19“I think it's like twenty three to nineteen something”
3Seattle Seahawks to beat Rams“And I am taking the Seahawks. I hate doing that, but this is my official one.”
4New England Patriots to reach the Super Bowl“because the Patriots Seahawks. That's my prediction for the Super Bowl this year.”
5New England Patriots to beat Broncos“I think the Patriots are going to play nearer their best and then that results in a two or three point win. Like, I think that's kind of the outcome here.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Seattle Seahawks to reach the Super Bowl¹	Conference Champions	NE and SEA won	100	0	+100
Seattle Seahawks 23 — Rams 19²	Score Predictions	—	100	95.3	+4.7
Seattle Seahawks to beat Rams³	Game Outcome Picks	—	100	100	0
New England Patriots to reach the Super Bowl⁴	Conference Champions	NE and SEA won	100	0	+100
New England Patriots to beat Broncos⁵	Game Outcome Picks	—	100	0	+100
5 calls · 5 hits · all settled			100	39.1

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

5 checkable claims — 2 conference champions, 2 game outcome picks and 1 score prediction — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 39.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Conference Champions Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked SEA
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
How this was scored
skill:
100
they picked:
SEA
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
champions:
NE, SEA
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
reached the Super Bowl:
yes
lost the conference final:
no
Think this is wrong?
2Score Predictions Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks 23 — Rams 19
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 95.3
100this call95.3a naive guess4.7better than naive1difficulty+4.7skill
Closing line (Jan 25): Seahawks by 2.5, total 45.5 · this 23–19 calls a bigger Seahawks win (by 4) and fewer points (42).
How this was scored
score:
27-31
skill:
4.7
they picked:
SEA
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
95.3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
4
weeks left when called:
0
naive home margin:
2.03
predicted margin:
4
Think this is wrong?
3Game Outcome Picks Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to beat Rams
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
Closing line (Jan 25): Seahawks by 2.5 · favorite pick, Seahawks 56%.
How this was scored
won:
SEA
score:
27-31
skill:
0
they picked:
SEA
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
SEA
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
4Conference Champions New England Patriots
New England Patriots to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked NE
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
How this was scored
skill:
100
they picked:
NE
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
champions:
NE, SEA
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
reached the Super Bowl:
yes
lost the conference final:
no
Think this is wrong?
5Game Outcome Picks New England Patriots
New England Patriots to beat Broncos
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
Closing line (Jan 25): Patriots by 3.5 · favorite pick, Patriots about 2 in 3 (64%).
How this was scored
won:
NE
score:
10-7
skill:
100
they picked:
NE
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
DEN
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 39.1