Clay Travis· Nov 3, 2022
Travis said Adam Laxalt could end up winning Nevada's Senate race by five or six points.
“he may end up winning by five or six points”
said on air or in an interview · The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show · read the original →
One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 42.2 out of 100, against 92.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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1 checkable claim in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race MarginsNov 3, 2022
“Out in Nevada, Adam Laxalt, in the gambling markets and also in the polls is pulling away, but he may end up winning by five or six points.”
Close · 42Scored 42.2a naive guess scored 92.2-50.5 skillHow this was scored
- race:
- 2022-senate-nv
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- −50.5
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- −0.78
- in their words:
- winning by five or six points
- read as:
- as written
- result from:
- fec-2022
- who won:
- Catherine Cortez Masto
- zero credit this far off:
- 10
- what they counted:
- margin in points
- whose number:
- Adam Paul Laxalt
- accuracy:
- 42.2
- baseline:
- 92.2
- race name:
- 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
- decided in the:
- general
- days before the vote when called:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- they won:
- no
- the naive guess:
- the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the certified margin:
- 0.78
- their party:
- Republican
- their range:
- 5 to 6
- the naive guess said:
- 0
More race margins
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
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- Doug SchoenRace MarginsHit · 100Schoen predicted a decisive Republican victory: the House with a 30-to-35-seat majority and the Senate with roughly 51 or 52 seats, while saying Kathy Hochul holds a clear advantage in New York and Ron DeSantis wins big in Florida.
- Spencer KimballRace MarginsClose · 48Kimball said the House looks set to flip to Republicans, and expected heavy ticket-splitting in New Hampshire, with Republican Sununu winning the governorship by nearly 20 points while Democrats hold the state's Senate seat by three or four points.
- Ben ShapiroRace MarginsMiss · 6Ahead of the midterm elections, Shapiro predicted Republican wins in several marquee races: Marco Rubio beating Val Demings in Florida's Senate race, Brian Kemp defeating Stacey Abrams in Georgia, Ron DeSantis beating Charlie Crist by roughly 10 points, and Kari Lake winning the Arizona governorship.
- Steve DeaceRace MarginsMiss · 36Deace forecast a "red tsunami": Republicans gaining roughly 54 House seats, winning 56 Senate seats, and capturing governorships in 36 states including New York, Minnesota, Colorado and Pennsylvania. He also said Ron DeSantis would set a Florida record for the largest GOP gubernatorial margin, that Chuck Grassley would not lose in Iowa, and that Kim Reynolds would win big.
- Jason JohnsonRace MarginsMiss · 36Johnson predicted Republicans would take both chambers, ending with about 230 House seats and about 53 Senate seats, and picked Lee Zeldin in New York and a Republican win in the New Hampshire Senate race as his biggest upsets. He also agreed DeSantis would break Florida's GOP gubernatorial margin record.