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Ethan HurwitzOct 14, 2026

Hurwitz frames New England's upcoming home divisional matchup with the New York Jets as a winnable game that can extend the Patriots' winning streak, and sees the team emerging as a playoff contender as Drake Maye and contributors like Gabe Jacas and A.J. Brown get going.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

100Hit · out of 100
Patriots 26–19What happenedJets at Patriots
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Ethan Hurwitz said

with a winnable game against the New York Jets coming up at home next Sunday, the Patriots can start to get this ball rolling.
Our reading: New England Patriots to beat New York Jets
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Most Important Patriots Postgame Quotes From Week 5 — And What They Mean Going Forward
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidOct 14
  2. PlayedOct 18
  3. GradedOct 18

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Game Outcome PicksNew England Patriots

    New England Patriots to beat New York Jets

    What happenedPatriots 26–19Jets at Patriots
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.72difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Oct 18): Patriots by 7.5 · favorite pick, Patriots about 3 in 4 (74%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    19-26
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    NE
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13
    Think this is wrong?

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