Cynthia Frelund#45 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 10, 2025
They picked Tampa Bay to beat Washington by at least three, Houston to upset the Chargers at home, and Philadelphia to beat Green Bay, while reaffirming their preseason Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl matchup.
Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original
What Cynthia Frelund said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI think that one Tampa by at least three points.
- Where it was said
- Around the NFL (podcast)
- The episode
- NFL Wild Card Picks with Cynthia Frelund
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidJan 10, 2025
- GradedAug 5–17, 2026
- 1Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Commander's“I think that the Bucks cover that... I think that one Tampa by at least three points.”
- 2Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl“But I certainly my preseason pick for the Super Bowl Chiefs Eagles. Feeling pretty good about it right now.”
- 3Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl“But I certainly my preseason pick for the Super Bowl Chiefs Eagles. Feeling pretty good about it right now.”
- 4Houston Texans to beat Chargers“I actually have Houston winning in that first game. This weekend, I have Houston at home upsetting the Chargers.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Commander's1 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl2 | Conference Champions | PHI and KC won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl3 | Conference Champions | PHI and KC won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Houston Texans to beat Chargers4 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| 4 calls · 3 hits · 1 miss · all settled | 75 | 75 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive4 checkable claims — 2 conference champions and 2 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 75 out of 100, against 75 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Commander's
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillClosing line (Jan 12): Buccaneers by 3 · favorite pick, Buccaneers 59%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- WAS
- score:
- 23-20
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
2Conference ChampionsKansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedPHI and KC wonpicked KC100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI, KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- yes
- lost the conference final:
- no
3Conference ChampionsPhiladelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedPHI and KC wonpicked PHI100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI, KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- yes
- lost the conference final:
- no
4Game Outcome PicksHouston Texans
Houston Texans to beat Chargers
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillClosing line (Jan 11): Chargers by 3 · underdog pick, Texans 41%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- HOU
- score:
- 12-32
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
75naive 75
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Damonza Byrd · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says they believe New England will win in Denver even though they are taking the Broncos with the points.Nick Wright · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; they also pick New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. They call Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.Nick Wright · Conference Champions · Denver Broncos · Close 50
Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.AJ Hawk · Conference Champions · Los Angeles Rams · Close 50
Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC they stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.Derek Murphy · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.