Danny Parkins· Apr 23, 2026
Danny Parkins presented his one-and-only 2026 mock draft, including trades: Mendoza at 1 to the Raiders, David Bailey second to the Jets, the Cowboys trading up to No. 3 for Arvell Reese, the Bears trading up to 16 for Kadyn Proctor, and Ty Simpson going to Arizona at 32 at the end of round one.
“I got number one right. Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at one.”
said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast) · read the original →
25 checkable claims — 23 mock draft picks and 2 team draft slot calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 41 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
22 of 25 have settled so far, averaging 80.4 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 2 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room on every one.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
- David Bailey
- New York Jets
- Peter Woods
- Buffalo Bills
- Sonny Styles
- New York Giants
- Arvell Reese
- Dallas Cowboys
- Jeremiyah Love
- Tennessee Titans
- Francis Mauigoa
- Cleveland Browns
- Kadyn Proctor
- Chicago Bears
- Dillon Thieneman
- Minnesota Vikings
- Makai Lemon
- Carolina Panthers
- Monroe Freeling
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Denzel Boston
- Colton Hood
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
- New England Patriots
- Ty Simpson
- Arizona Cardinals
- Fernando Mendoza
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Omar Cooper
- Los Angeles Rams
- Kenyon Sadiq
- Baltimore Ravens
- Caleb Downs
- Rueben Bain
- New Orleans Saints
- Olaivavega Ioane
- Detroit Lions
- Carnell Tate
- Washington Commanders
- B.J.
25 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksDavid BaileyNew York JetsApr 23, 2026
David Bailey to be picked at number 2
“I think the Jets with Aaron Glenn go with the more surefire pass rusher, David Bailey, over Arvell Reese at two”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.75 against a shuffle’s 50+41.75 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 41.75
- player:
- David Bailey
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 91.75
- Mock Draft PicksPeter WoodsBuffalo BillsApr 23, 2026
Peter Woods to be picked at number 26
“I think Peter Woods and Caden McDonald would be like the top guys for the Bills. I had them going with the DT out of Clemson.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.75 against a shuffle’s 50+41.75 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 41.75
- player:
- Peter Woods
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 29
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 26
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 91.75
- Mock Draft PicksSonny StylesNew York GiantsApr 23, 2026
Sonny Styles to be picked at number 5
“Sonny Styles to the Giants.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 91.75 against a shuffle’s 50+41.75 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 41.75
- player:
- Sonny Styles
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 91.75
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseDallas CowboysApr 23, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3
“And I have Dallas taking the big swing... Arvel Reese with the comps to Micah Parsons, they give up twelve and twenty to move up.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveTennessee TitansApr 23, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 4
“The fourth pick is not what I would do, but Jeremiah Love, people say is the best player in the draft... I do think if he is there, they will do it.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksFrancis MauigoaCleveland BrownsApr 23, 2026
Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 6
“Francis Manenoah for the Browns, I know they need a left tackle.”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Francis Mauigoa
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksKadyn ProctorChicago BearsApr 23, 2026
Kadyn Proctor to be picked at number 16
“So I have the Bears taking the second round pick that they got in the DJ Moore trade and jumping the Lions, jumping the Vikings and moving up for K Pop... So Caden Proctor to the Bears”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Kadyn Proctor
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- 16
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
Dillon Thieneman to be picked at number 18
“Everyone has Dylan Thieneman, back to the Vikings.”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Dillon Thieneman
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksMakai LemonCarolina PanthersApr 23, 2026
Makai Lemon to be picked at number 19
“The Panthers going with McKay Lemmon”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Makai Lemon
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 20
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 19
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
Monroe Freeling to be picked at number 23
“Eagles are gonna be a prime team to trade up, but they'll settle for Monroe Freeling.”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Monroe Freeling
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 19
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- 23
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksDenzel BostonNew York JetsApr 23, 2026
Denzel Boston to be picked at number 25
“I'm going Denzel Boston, to to the Jets”
Close · 55Scored 54.53 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Denzel Boston
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 54.53
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 39
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 54.53
- predicted pick:
- 25
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksColton HoodKansas City ChiefsApr 23, 2026
Colton Hood to be picked at number 29
“Chiefs rebuild their secondary in one draft at the corner out of Tennessee... I had them just overhauling their secondary with Caleb Downs and Colton Hood with the two picks.”
Close · 71Scored 70.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Colton Hood
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 70.71
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 37
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 70.71
- predicted pick:
- 29
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to be picked at number 31
“Most people don't have the Patriots taking a safety, but most people also have McNeil Warren going higher than this.”
Miss · 31Scored 31.05 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 31.05
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 58
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 31.05
- predicted pick:
- 31
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksTy SimpsonArizona CardinalsApr 23, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked at number 32
“So I have Arizona jump with a thirty fourth pick... and take the Seahawks pick at 32... And Tye Simpson goes to the Cardinals”
Close · 44Scored 43.91 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 43.91
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 43.91
- predicted pick:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at one.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksTy SimpsonApr 23, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked “Very end of the first round” (picks 1–32)
“So I think Ty Simpson, I think someone trades... Very end of the first round, I think he gets his name called tonight.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- Very end of the first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksOmar CooperLos Angeles RamsApr 23, 2026
Omar Cooper to be picked at number 13
“Omar Cooper with Sean McVay just feels... fun”
Close · 48Scored 47.88 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Omar Cooper
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 47.88
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 30
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 47.88
- predicted pick:
- 13
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksKenyon SadiqBaltimore RavensApr 23, 2026
Kenyon Sadiq to be picked at number 14
“Ravens replace freakish tight end Isaiah Likeley with freakish tight end Kenyon Sadiq.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Kenyon Sadiq
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 16
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 14
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsKansas City ChiefsApr 23, 2026
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 9
“I think the Chiefs just go to arguably best player in the draft, Caleb Downs... At at number nine.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Caleb Downs
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 9
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksRueben BainNew Orleans SaintsApr 23, 2026
Rueben Bain to be picked at number 8
“And then Reuben Bain Junior goes to the New Orleans Saints at number eight”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Rueben Bain
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 15
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksOlaivavega IoaneDetroit LionsApr 23, 2026
Olaivavega Ioane to be picked at number 17
“Lions on the clock. And this pit, Vanga Yawanda just seems like a... Dan Campbell pick.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Olaivavega Ioane
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 14
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 7
“Carnell Tate goes to the Commanders.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.37 against a shuffle’s 50+39.37 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.37
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.37
- Mock Draft PicksB.J.Arizona CardinalsApr 23, 2026
B.J. to be picked at number 20
“Cardinals with the trade down, they get Falk on an edge with upside”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Team Draft Slot CallsDallas CowboysApr 23, 2026
Dallas Cowboys to pick at number 3
“You've got the Cowboys sending three, and a fourth round pick, and the Cardinals get twelfth and twentieth overall pick.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Team Draft Slot CallsChicago BearsApr 23, 2026
Chicago Bears to pick at number 16
“you're sending the Jets the twenty fifth pick overall and the sixtieth pick, that's your, DJ Moore pick”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Jermod McCoyMiss · 2Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Pat FitzmauriceMock Draft Picks · Cashius HowellMiss · 32Making a third of the mock's picks, he gave Reuben Bain to Arizona at 3, Francis Mauinoa to Cleveland at 6, Jeremiah Love to Kansas City at 9, Mansoor Delane to Dallas at 12, Cassius Howell to Tampa Bay at 15, Avieon Terrell to Minnesota at 18, Makai Lemon to Pittsburgh at 21, KC Concepcion to Cleveland at 24, Kadyn Proctor to San Francisco at 27 and TJ Parker to New England at 30.