Rich DavisJan 17, 2026

Rich picked all four road underdogs: Bills 34-17 over Denver, the Niners at Seattle, the Texans in New England and the Bears to beat the Rams outright.

Said on air or in an interview · The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)Hear the original

0 of 3calls landed3 misses · all settled

5.6Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls

65.9A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

3 of 3Settlednone still waiting

0Waitingnot graded yet

What Rich Davis said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I have the Bills, Niners, Texans Bears.

Rich Davis, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)
The episode: C&R - Divisional Round Picks & Brainwave
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidJan 16
GradedAug 5

1Chicago Bears to beat Rams“I'm loving the Bears here. I'm going Bears. I think not only they cover, I think they win the game.”
2Houston Texans to beat Patriots“I am going road dog style. I think the Texans win eleven in a row. I like Houston.”
3Buffalo Bills 34 — Broncos 17“I like Buffalo. I think Josh Allen's a man on a mission... I think Josh Allen thirty four seventeen.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Chicago Bears to beat Rams¹	Game Outcome Picks	—	0	0	0
Houston Texans to beat Patriots²	Game Outcome Picks	—	0	100	−100
Buffalo Bills 34 — Broncos 17³	Score Predictions	—	16.67	97.69	−81.02
3 calls · 3 misses · all settled			5.6	65.9

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

3 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks and 1 score prediction — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 3 have settled, averaging 5.6 out of 100, against 65.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Game Outcome Picks Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears to beat Rams
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
Closing line (Jan 18): Rams by 3.5 · underdog pick, Bears about 1 in 3 (36%). Graded on who won, not on the spread.
How this was scored
won:
LAR
score:
20-17
skill:
0
they picked:
CHI
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
CHI
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
2Game Outcome Picks Houston Texans
Houston Texans to beat Patriots
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill
Closing line (Jan 18): Patriots by 3 · underdog pick, Texans 38%.
How this was scored
won:
NE
score:
16-28
skill:
−100
they picked:
HOU
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
NE
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
3Score Predictions Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills 34 — Broncos 17
VerdictMiss
16.67Miss · naive 97.69
16.67this call97.69a naive guess−81.02worse than naive1difficulty−81.02skill
Closing line (Jan 17): Broncos by 1.5, total 45.5 · this 34–17 calls a Bills win (by 17; the line gave the Bills 48%) and more points (51).
How this was scored
score:
30-33
skill:
−81.02
they picked:
BUF
season:
2025
accuracy:
16.67
baseline:
97.69
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
0
naive home margin:
2.03
predicted margin:
17
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
5.6naive 65.9