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Matt MillerMar 31, 2026

In their 2026 seven-round mock draft, Miller has Fernando Mendoza going No. 1 overall, Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Francis Mauigoa to Arizona at No. 3, Jeremiah Love to Tennessee at No. 4, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Carnell Tate to the Browns at No. 6, and a series of other first- and second-round picks including Ty Simpson to the Jets at the top of round two.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original

12 of 26calls landed12 hits · 12 close calls · 2 misses · 1 waiting
74.5Average accuracyout of 100, across 26 calls
50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
26 of 27Settled1 still waiting
1Waitingnot graded yet

What Matt Miller said

So I go back to Love as the best player in this class in my opinion, and they have a need there.
Matt Miller, the lead quote
The episode
Hour 1: NFL Owners Meetings Reactions, plus ESPN’s Matt Miller Talks 7-Round Mock Draft
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidMar 31
  2. GradedOct 1

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting
GroupHitsCloseMissesWaitingCalls
Mock Draft Picks121220
Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls0001
All121221

How each call scored

27 checkable claims — 26 mock draft picks and 1 pro bowl and all-pro call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 43 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

26 of 27 have settled so far, averaging 74.5 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
8They said
2What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

Mock Draft Picks12 hits · 12 close calls · 2 missesShow ▸
  1. David Bailey to be picked at number 8

    “and then Bailey, Bane, and Styles going to the Saints, Chiefs, and Bengals”

    David BaileyNew Orleans Saints

    Went 2mocked at 8
    77.11Close

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    David Bailey
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    77.11
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    2
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    77.11
    predicted pick:
    8
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  2. Rueben Bain to be picked at number 9

    “and then Bailey, Bane, and Styles going to the Saints, Chiefs, and Bengals... getting Ruben Bayne and Adrian Terrell gives them weapons on defense”

    Rueben BainKansas City Chiefs

    Went 15mocked at 9
    77.11Close

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Rueben Bain
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    77.11
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    15
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    77.11
    predicted pick:
    9
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  3. Jadarian Price to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)

    “And I'd like this pick for Minnesota Jadarion Price... would be a really nice draft choice with Dylan Thienham in first round, second round”

    Jadarian PriceMinnesota Vikings

    Went 32
    95.76Hit

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Jadarian Price
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    95.76
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    32
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    95.76
    predicted pick:
    second round (picks 33–64)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  4. Ty Simpson to be picked at number 33

    “And then you do have Ty Simpson going, first on the second night... Why do you why do you peg him for the Jets?”

    Ty SimpsonNew York Jets

    Went 13mocked at 33
    42.04Close

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Ty Simpson
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    42.04
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    13
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    42.04
    predicted pick:
    33
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  5. Makai Lemon to be picked at number 11

    “I think whoever, is the best receiver available for the Dolphins, that's gonna be 11. Mekhi Lemmon is a very popular choice there... which means Miami would go Makai Lemmon”

    Makai LemonMiami Dolphins

    Went 20mocked at 11
    67.71Close

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Makai Lemon
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    67.71
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    20
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    67.71
    predicted pick:
    11
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  6. Eli Stowers to be picked at number 40

    “40 overall, you've got Eli Stowers who we had on the program last week going to Miami”

    Eli StowersMiami Dolphins

    Went 54mocked at 40
    54.53Close

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Eli Stowers
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    54.53
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    54
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    54.53
    predicted pick:
    40
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  7. Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 3

    “The cardinals do go with Francis Mowonoa from Miami... Yeah. I think given what Arizona has, where they're at right now, there's not a quarterback that they should take here.”

    Francis MauigoaArizona Cardinals

    Went 10mocked at 3
    73.84Close

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Francis Mauigoa
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    73.84
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    10
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    73.84
    predicted pick:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  8. Carson Beck to be picked “starts off the third round” (picks 65–100)

    “I think he starts off the third round for me going to the Arizona Cardinals”

    Carson BeckArizona Cardinals

    Went 65
    100Hit

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Carson Beck
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    65
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    starts off the third round (picks 65–100)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  9. K.C. Concepcion to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)

    “And and Casey Concepcion to the Giants”

    K.C. ConcepcionNew York Giants

    Went 24
    67.71Close

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    K.C. Concepcion
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    67.71
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    24
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    67.71
    predicted pick:
    second round (picks 33–64)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  10. Omar Cooper to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    “The Bills going Omar Cooper Junior that the receiver out of Indiana”

    Omar CooperBuffalo Bills

    Went 30
    100Hit

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Omar Cooper
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    30
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    first round (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  11. Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 4

    “You have Jeremiah Love going to Tennessee fourth overall... So I I go back to Love as the best player in this class in my opinion, and they have a need there.”

    Jeremiyah LoveTennessee Titans

    Went 3mocked at 4
    95.76Hit

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Jeremiyah Love
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    95.76
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    3
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    95.76
    predicted pick:
    4
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  12. Kenyon Sadiq to be picked at number 14

    “You got Kenyan Sadique. It'll be the second straight year, an incredibly athletic tight end, goes fourteenth overall... You got Kenyan Sadique going to to Baltimore.”

    Kenyon SadiqBaltimore Ravens

    Went 16mocked at 14
    91.7Hit

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Kenyon Sadiq
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    91.7
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    16
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    91.7
    predicted pick:
    14
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  13. Sonny Styles to be picked at number 10

    “for me this year, it would be Sonny Stiles at ten... So he would be an absolute steal at 10 for the Bengals”

    Sonny StylesCincinnati Bengals

    Went 7mocked at 10
    87.81Hit

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Sonny Styles
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    87.81
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    7
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    87.81
    predicted pick:
    10
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  14. Denzel Boston to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)

    “you you'd throw where Denzel Boston to the Raiders”

    Denzel BostonLas Vegas Raiders

    Went 39
    100Hit

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Denzel Boston
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    39
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    second round (picks 33–64)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  15. Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2

    “You still think the Jets choose him second overall, Matt? Yeah. I do.”

    Arvell ReeseNew York Jets

    Went 5mocked at 2
    87.81Hit

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Arvell Reese
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    87.81
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    5
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    87.81
    predicted pick:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  16. Dillon Thieneman to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    “You're also seeing Dylan Thieneman being a a Sharpie pick for the Vikings”

    Dillon ThienemanMinnesota Vikings

    Went 25
    100Hit

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Dillon Thieneman
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    25
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    first round (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  17. Garrett Nussmeier to be picked at number 53

    “You would have Garrett Nussmeyer being the choice... for the Steelers fifty third overall”

    Garrett NussmeierPittsburgh Steelers

    Went 249mocked at 53
    0.02Miss

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Garrett Nussmeier
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    0.02
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    249
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    0.02
    predicted pick:
    53
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  18. Jermod McCoy to be picked at number 12

    “and then it's whoever the the top two defensive backs are available for the Cowboys at twelve and twenty on their draft board... Getting McCoy in there”

    Jermod McCoyDallas Cowboys

    Went 101mocked at 12
    2.12Miss

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Jermod McCoy
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    2.12
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    101
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    2.12
    predicted pick:
    12
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  19. Caleb Downs to be picked at number 5

    “that leaves every other Ohio State player available for the Giants, and you think they go downs”

    Caleb DownsNew York Giants

    Went 11mocked at 5
    77.11Close

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Caleb Downs
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    77.11
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    11
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    77.11
    predicted pick:
    5
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  20. Drew Allar to be picked “second round choice” (picks 33–64)

    “and then you have the Rams using a second round choice on Drew Aller of Penn State”

    Drew AllarLos Angeles Rams

    Went 76
    59.46Close

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Drew Allar
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    59.46
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    76
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    59.46
    predicted pick:
    second round choice (picks 33–64)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  21. Carnell Tate to be picked at number 6

    “And then Tate would be available for the Browns? You think that would be Todd Monken's first draft choice as the Browns? I do.”

    Carnell TateCleveland Browns

    Went 4mocked at 6
    91.7Hit

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Carnell Tate
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    91.7
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    4
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    91.7
    predicted pick:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  22. Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 7

    “So then you got, the final four of your first, top 10 here. Mansoor delaying going to Washington”

    Mansoor DelaneWashington Commanders

    Went 6mocked at 7
    95.76Hit

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Mansoor Delane
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    95.76
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    6
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    95.76
    predicted pick:
    7
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  23. Colton Hood to be picked at number 30

    “You have them Colton Hood, a corner and thirtieth overall pick from the the, trade of Jalen Waddle to Denver”

    Colton HoodMiami Dolphins

    Went 37mocked at 30
    73.84Close

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Colton Hood
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    73.84
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    37
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    73.84
    predicted pick:
    30
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  24. Avieon Terrell to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    “I I think Avion Tyrell, that might be another Sharpie pick, right, with the Chiefs having flipped... getting Ruben Bayne and Adrian Terrell gives them weapons on defense”

    Avieon TerrellKansas City Chiefs

    Went 48
    50Close

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Avieon Terrell
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    50
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    48
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    50
    predicted pick:
    first round (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  25. Kadyn Proctor to be picked at number 21

    “You you do have the, Steelers going tackle, at 21 and Caden Procter”

    Kadyn ProctorPittsburgh Steelers

    Went 12mocked at 21
    67.71Close

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Kadyn Proctor
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    67.71
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    12
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    67.71
    predicted pick:
    21
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
  26. Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1

    “we know it's Fernando Mendoza one”

    Fernando Mendoza

    Went 1mocked at 1
    100Hit

    mock order 90.4 − 50 for a shuffle = 40.4 × 1 difficulty = +40.4 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    40.4
    player:
    Fernando Mendoza
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    90.4
    Think this is wrong?
Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls1 waitingShow ▸
  1. Eli Stowers to make Pro Bowl

    “If you could get him in Miami at this spot, I think that's that's a potential Pro Bowl player.”

    Eli StowersMiami Dolphins

    —Waiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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