Mike TannenbaumSep 6, 2022
Tannenbaum picked Justin Herbert MVP, Herbert also for OPOY, Aaron Donald DPOY, Chris Olave OROY, Aidan Hutchinson DROY, Jameis Winston Comeback Player and Todd Bowles Coach of the Year.
Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original
What Mike Tannenbaum said
our reading, beside the words we read it from$30 million a year is the right number for Aaron Donald, who's the most important non-quarterback in the league.
- Where it was published
- The 33rd Team
- The piece
- 2022 NFL Awards Predictions: MVP, Rookies of the Year, and More - The 33rd Team
- The original
- The copy as archived Sep 7, 2022
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.
- SaidSep 5, 2022
- GradedAug 5, 2026
- 1Justin Herbert to win Most Valuable Player“T2. Chargers QB Justin Herbert (3 votes: Matt Cassel, Mike Martz, Mike Tannenbaum)”
- 2Justin Herbert to win Offensive Player of the Year“Chargers QB Justin Herbert (1 vote: Tannenbaum)”
- 3Jameis Winston to win Comeback Player of the Year“1. Saints QB Jameis Winston (6 votes: ... Tannenbaum ...)”
- 4Aaron Donald to win Defensive Player of the Year“1. Rams DT Aaron Donald (5 votes: ... Tannenbaum)”
- 5Todd Bowles to win Coach of the Year“Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles (1 vote: Tannebaum)”
- 6Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year“1. Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson (10 votes: ... Tannenbaum ...)”
- 7Chris Olave to win Offensive Rookie of the Year“1. Saints WR Chris Olave (6 votes: ... Tannenbaum ...)”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert to win Most Valuable Player1 | Award Picks | Patrick Mahomes won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Justin Herbert to win Offensive Player of the Year2 | Award Picks | Justin Jefferson won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jameis Winston to win Comeback Player of the Year3 | Award Picks | Geno Smith won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aaron Donald to win Defensive Player of the Year4 | Award Picks | Nick Bosa won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Todd Bowles to win Coach of the Year5 | Coach Award Picks | Brian Daboll won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year6 | Award Picks | Sauce Gardner won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chris Olave to win Offensive Rookie of the Year7 | Award Picks | Garrett Wilson won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 calls · 7 misses · all settled | 0 | 0 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive7 checkable claims — 6 award picks and 1 coach award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Award PicksJustin HerbertLos Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert to win Most Valuable Player
What happenedPatrick Mahomes woncalled Justin Herbert0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Aaron Rodgers, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Justin Herbert
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Patrick Mahomes
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
2Award PicksJustin HerbertLos Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert to win Offensive Player of the Year
What happenedJustin Jefferson woncalled Justin Herbert0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- offensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Cooper Kupp, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Justin Herbert
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Justin Jefferson
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
3Award PicksJameis WinstonNew Orleans Saints
Jameis Winston to win Comeback Player of the Year
What happenedGeno Smith woncalled Jameis Winston0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- comeback_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Joe Burrow, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jameis Winston
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Geno Smith
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
4Award PicksAaron DonaldLos Angeles Rams
Aaron Donald to win Defensive Player of the Year
What happenedNick Bosa woncalled Aaron Donald0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- defensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was T.J. Watt, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Aaron Donald
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Nick Bosa
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
5Coach Award PicksTampa Bay Buccaneers
Todd Bowles to win Coach of the Year
What happenedBrian Daboll woncalled Todd Bowles0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- coach_of_the_year
- coach:
- Todd Bowles
- naive:
- the naive pick was Mike Vrabel, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Brian Daboll
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
6Award PicksAidan HutchinsonDetroit Lions
Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year
What happenedSauce Gardner woncalled Aidan Hutchinson0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- defensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Micah Parsons, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Aidan Hutchinson
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Sauce Gardner
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
7Award PicksChris OlaveNew Orleans Saints
Chris Olave to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
What happenedGarrett Wilson woncalled Chris Olave0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- offensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Ja'Marr Chase, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Chris Olave
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Garrett Wilson
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 7 settled calls, each counted once
0naive 0
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Brandon Carney · Trade and Signing Calls · Mike Evans · Miss 0
Carney predicts Geno Smith signs with the Vikings and starts for them, that at least four of the fringe veteran quarterbacks (Tua, Kyler, Cousins, Fields, Geno) will be starters next season, and that Mike Evans stays with Tampa Bay. They also rank their top fantasy wide receivers and comments on running back landing spots and trade values.Dalton Feely · Trade and Signing Calls · Chris Godwin Jr. · Hit 100
Feenie predicted Chris Godwin stays in Tampa Bay, Josh Sweat reunites with Jonathan Gannon in Arizona, Ronnie Stanley signs with New England, Jevon Holland lands in Indianapolis, Khalil Mack joins Washington, Asante Samuel Jr. goes to San Francisco, Najee Harris to the Raiders and Bobby Wagner to Dallas.Colin Cowherd · Trade and Signing Calls · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Cowherd predicts Matt Stafford stays with the Rams rather than moving on, and says Travis Hunter may underachieve because they're being asked to play both ways — Cowherd doubts they're a No. 1 receiver and would slot them as a No. 2 receiver while being a No. 1 corner.Colin Cowherd · Trade and Signing Calls · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Cowherd believes Matt Stafford's public negotiation posturing means he ultimately stays in Los Angeles, and he flags Travis Hunter as a high draft pick who could underachieve because trying to play both cornerback and receiver full-time will hurt him.Christian Booher · Roster Spot Calls · Anthony Lucas · Miss 0
Booher previews the Lions' Week 9 trip to Miami, predicting Derrick Barnes takes over as the green-dot linebacker in Jack Campbell's absence, Juice Scruggs starts at center, and boldly forecasting Detroit's first defensive touchdown of the season on an Aidan Hutchinson strip-sack recovered and returned by Barnes.
More award picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Willie Colon · Award Picks · Sam Darnold · Miss 0
Colon picked the Seahawks to win 24-14 with Sam Darnold as Super Bowl MVP.Danny Parkins · Award Picks · Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Miss 0
Parkins picked Seattle to win 27-16 with Jaxon Smith-Njigba as Super Bowl MVP.