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Gene ChamberlainSep 12, 2026

Chamberlain picks the Bears to beat the Panthers in Week 1 at Charlotte, 34-30, giving Chicago the edge in the run game, passing game, pass defense and coaching.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

57Close · out of 100
Bears 59–37What happenedcalled Bears by 4 · won by 22
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
57.14This callout of 100
+114.29Skillafter difficulty

What Gene Chamberlain said

Gene Chamberlain's pick: Bears 34, Panthers 30
Our reading: Chicago Bears 34 — Panthers 30
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers: Who Wins and Why for Week 1
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidSep 12
  2. PlayedSep 13
  3. GradedSep 15

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 57.1 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsChicago Bears

    Chicago Bears 34 — Panthers 30

    What happenedBears 59–37called Bears by 4 · won by 22
    57.14Close · naive 0
    57.14this call0a naive guess57.14better than naive2difficulty+114.29skill

    Closing line (Sep 13): Bears by 3, total 47.5 · this 34–30 calls a bigger Bears win (by 4) and more points (64).

    How this was scored
    score:
    59-37
    skill:
    114.29
    they picked:
    CHI
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    57.14
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    22
    weeks left when called:
    18
    naive home margin:
    −0.53
    predicted margin:
    4
    Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

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