Lance Zierlein#11 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 10, 2026
Lance's Week 1 bold prediction is that the Falcons, despite quarterback uncertainty, will win on the road against the Steelers. They also stand by an earlier call that the Texans will be the No. 1 seed, while worrying about how CJ Stroud handles adversity.
Said on air, transcribed by us · John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)Hear the original
What Lance Zierlein said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromFalcons, despite their disarray quarterback, go in to beat the Steelers.
- Where it was said
- John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)
- The episode
- 9.10 Hour 3 - CJ Stroud vs adversity + Predictions for Week 1
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 10
- PlayedSep 13
- GradedSep 15
- 1Atlanta Falcons to beat Steelers“Week one of my bold prediction... And I said, Falcons beat. Falcons, despite their disarray quarterback, go in to beat the Steelers.”
- 2Houston Texans to take the top seed“But you still believe this isn't a, number one seed, though, after all the things you just said. ... You said that that you think that the number one seed”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons to beat Steelers1 | Game Outcome Picks | Steelers 20–13 | 0 | 100 | −200 | |
| Houston Texans to take the top seed2 | Seeding, Byes and Home Field | — | — | — | — | |
| 2 calls · 1 miss · 1 waiting | 0 | 100 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive2 checkable claims — 1 game outcome pick and 1 seeding, byes and home field — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
1 of 2 have settled so far, averaging 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Where this call stands in the room
Houston Texans · 2026 season3 calls from 3 pundits between 1 and 2. Lance Zierlein said 1. the room's median is 1. not settled yet
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
1Game Outcome PicksAtlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons to beat Steelers
What happenedSteelers 20–13Falcons at Steelers0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×2difficulty=−200skillClosing line (Sep 13): Steelers by 6.5 · underdog pick, Falcons 28%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 13-20
- skill:
- −200
- they picked:
- ATL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
2Seeding, Byes and Home FieldHouston Texans
Houston Texans to take the top seed
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
The game in this take
every pundit’s pick on eachWho this take is about
Others on the same people
Alex Curry · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
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More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
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