Mel Kiper· Feb 18, 2026
Kiper's first mock draft has Fernando Mendoza going No. 1 overall to the Raiders, Arvell Reese second to the Jets, a third pick to Arizona, Carnell Tate fifth to the Giants, Jeremiah Love ninth to Kansas City, Caleb Downs 10th to Cincinnati, Sonny Styles to Dallas, and Ty Simpson at 16 to the Jets. He also says Dante Moore will be in the No. 1 pick conversation with Arch Manning next year.
“So Jeremiah Love is gonna be in that top nine somewhere.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →
11 checkable claims — 11 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 17 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
9 of 11 have settled so far, averaging 90 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
11 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksAkheem MesidorDallas CowboysFeb 18, 2026
Akheem Mesidor to be picked at number 20
“And they could pick again at 20. They could get maybe Messador from Miami.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.29 against a shuffle’s 50+39.29 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.29
- player:
- Akheem Mesidor
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 22
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 20
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.29
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“And you still have Fernando Mendoza being the top pick in the draft.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.93 against a shuffle’s 50+33.93 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 33.93
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 83.93
- Mock Draft PicksCarnell TateNew York GiantsFeb 18, 2026
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 5
“And then you do have the Giants going and grabbing Carnell Tate... the Giants take him at five”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.93 against a shuffle’s 50+33.93 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 33.93
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 83.93
- Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveKansas City ChiefsFeb 18, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 9
“And then you're looking at the end of your top 10 as we just saw. Jeremiah Love, nine to Kansas City.”
Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.93 against a shuffle’s 50+33.93 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 33.93
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 77.11
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 77.11
- predicted pick:
- 9
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 83.93
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsCincinnati BengalsFeb 18, 2026
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 10
“Caleb Downs, 10 to Cincinnati.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.93 against a shuffle’s 50+33.93 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 33.93
- player:
- Caleb Downs
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 83.93
- Mock Draft PicksFrancis MauigoaArizona CardinalsFeb 18, 2026
Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 3
“and Marigoa going to Arizona at three”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.93 against a shuffle’s 50+33.93 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 33.93
- player:
- Francis Mauigoa
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 83.93
- Mock Draft PicksTy SimpsonNew York JetsFeb 18, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked at number 16
“And then you had Ty Simpson going off the board right in the middle to the Jets... So you think about where the jets are picking at 16.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.93 against a shuffle’s 50+33.93 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 33.93
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 16
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 83.93
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseNew York JetsFeb 18, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2
“You got the Jets choosing Arbel Reese out of the Ohio State... And you got Reese there at, second overall”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.93 against a shuffle’s 50+33.93 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 33.93
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 83.93
- Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveFeb 18, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “in that top nine somewhere” (picks 1–9)
“So Jeremiah Love is gonna be in that top nine somewhere.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 83.93 against a shuffle’s 50+33.93 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 33.93
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- in that top nine somewhere (picks 1–9)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 83.93
- Mock Draft PicksSonny StylesDallas CowboysFeb 18, 2026
Sonny Styles to be picked “your next 10”
“then you move down to your next 10. You got Sonny Styles heading to Dallas.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksMatt MooreFeb 18, 2026
Matt Moore to be picked “right there with Arch as the number one pick next year”
“Dante made a great decision. Not enough starts at 20. Go back to Oregon. Be right there with Arch as the number one pick next year.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Jake ArthurScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Scott BogmanMock Draft Picks · Olaivavega IoaneClose · 71He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.