Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Emmett MatasovskyOct 4, 2026

Matasovsky expects another 31-point offensive outing from Detroit and a narrow win over Carolina, with Aidan Hutchinson delivering a key sack.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

43Close · out of 100
Panthers 32–26What happenedcalled Lions by 3 · lost by 6
88.1A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
42.86This callout of 100
−82.79Skillafter difficulty

What Emmett Matasovsky said

I will say Aidan Hutchinson gets a clutch sack to keep the Lions afloat.
Our reading: Detroit Lions 31 — Panthers 28
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Expert Predictions For Detroit Lions Matchup With Carolina Panthers
The original
Read the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidOct 4
  2. PlayedOct 4
  3. GradedOct 5

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 42.9 out of 100, against 88.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsDetroit Lions

    Detroit Lions 31 — Panthers 28

    What happenedPanthers 32–26called Lions by 3 · lost by 6
    42.86Close · naive 88.1
    42.86this call88.1a naive guess−45.24worse than naive1.83difficulty−82.79skill

    Closing line (Oct 4): Lions by 4.5, total 52.5 · this 31–28 calls a closer game (Lions by 3) and more points (59).

    How this was scored
    score:
    26-32
    skill:
    −82.79
    they picked:
    DET
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    42.86
    baseline:
    88.1
    difficulty:
    1.83
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    15
    naive home margin:
    1
    predicted margin:
    3
    Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

More score predictions

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these