Ben Shapiro· Oct 31, 2022
Shapiro predicted a Republican blowout in the midterms, revising his own House estimate upward to a pickup of 35 or more seats, and said Stacey Abrams would be badly beaten by Brian Kemp in Georgia's governor's race.
“My guess is they're gonna win 35 or upward now.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Ben Shapiro Show · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 1 race winner and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 77.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Seat CountsOct 31, 2022
“My guess is they're gonna win 35 or upward now. I'm gonna revise my estimate upward. I had always said they're gonna win 30 plus.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 55-55.55 skillHow this was scored
- election year:
- 2022
- party:
- Republican
- seats after:
- 222
- skill:
- −55.55
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 9
- result from:
- house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
- chamber:
- 2022-house
- what they counted:
- net seats
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 55
- they said:
- 35
- days before the vote when called:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- seats before:
- 213
- the naive guess:
- no change from the previous election
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the naive guess said:
- 0
- Race WinnersOct 31, 2022
“So Stacey Abrams, who's about to just get her ass kicked in her race with Brian Kemp in Georgia, so she's about to lose for the second time.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2022-governor-ga
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2022-governor
- who won:
- Brian Kemp
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Brian Kemp
- days before the vote when called:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More seat counts
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Matt ContinettiSeat CountsClose · 45Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida.
- Glenn BeckSeat CountsMiss · 20Beck forecast Republicans winning about 53 or 54 Senate seats and clearly taking the House, with GOP wins in Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Hampshire Senate races.
- Doug SchoenSeat CountsMiss · 0Schoen predicted a decisive Republican victory: the House with a 30-to-35-seat majority and the Senate with roughly 51 or 52 seats, while saying Kathy Hochul holds a clear advantage in New York and Ron DeSantis wins big in Florida.
- Jim GeraghtySeat CountsMiss · 35Garrity forecast a large Republican wave: a GOP House majority of roughly 229-241 seats, with his final call at 235 Republicans to 200 Democrats, and a 51-48 Republican Senate edge with Bolduc, Laxalt and Johnson winning while Georgia goes to a runoff.
- Steve DeaceSeat CountsMiss · 0On the eve of the midterms Deace projected a 42-seat Republican gain in the House and dismissed the idea that Republicans could take the House without also taking the Senate. He also expected Kari Lake to win the Arizona governorship and suggested Laxalt would win Nevada's Senate race even if his margin were squeezed.
- Rich BarisSeat CountsClose · 40Barris called Republicans taking the House a foregone conclusion with a seat gain he put at the low end around 15-20, projected Republicans at about 52 Senate seats, said Abigail Spanberger would lose in Virginia's 7th, and expected Democrats to hold Virginia's 10th.