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Chris Long· Oct 30, 2026

Previewing Week 8, Chris Long leaned Pittsburgh over Cleveland, picked Tampa Bay to beat Atlanta 23-19, had Carolina beating Green Bay 24-20 on Thursday night, and said the Denver-Kansas City matchup tilts toward the Broncos. He also expected Jeffery Simmons to make his Bears debut Monday night and floated that this is Montez Sweat's last season in Chicago.

“I think the Steelers have the edge in this one.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Green Light with Chris Long (podcast) · read the original →

7 checkable claims — 2 availability calls, 2 game outcome picks, 2 score predictions and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

3 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 90.5 out of 100, against 87.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

The games in this take

7 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Game Outcome PicksDenver BroncosOct 30, 2026

    Denver Broncos to beat Kansas City

    “But the other thing is two things I think tilt the tilt the game in the direction of the Broncos, if I'm being honest.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    DEN
    score:
    24-28
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    DEN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DEN
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    11

    Closing line (Nov 1): Broncos by 1.5 · a toss-up, Chiefs 50%, Broncos 50%.

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  • Score PredictionsTampa Bay BuccaneersOct 30, 2026

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 — Falcons 19

    “Damn. I think I got the Bucks. Okay. I think I got the Bucks. I think I got the Bucks 23 to 19.”

    Close · 71Scored 71.43a naive guess scored 63.03+13.52 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    0-16
    skill:
    13.52
    they picked:
    TB
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    71.43
    baseline:
    63.03
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    16
    weeks left when called:
    11
    naive home margin:
    0.47
    predicted margin:
    4

    Closing line (Nov 1): Buccaneers by 2.5, total 42.5 · this 23–19 calls a bigger Buccaneers win (by 4) and fewer points (42).

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  • Game Outcome PicksPittsburgh SteelersOct 30, 2026

    Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Cleveland Browns

    “But this is... The Steelers are better, you know, and they and they run the football... I think the Steelers have the edge in this one.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    PIT
    score:
    6-27
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    PIT
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    PIT
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    11

    Closing line (Nov 1): Steelers by 3.5 · favorite pick, Steelers 64%.

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  • Availability CallsDJ MooreOct 30, 2026

    “I had a jump scare when I saw Shavers got elevated this week. I thought DJ Moore wasn't gonna be up, and luckily, he's gonna play.”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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  • Score PredictionsCarolina PanthersOct 30, 2026

    Carolina Panthers 24 — Packers 20

    “Chris Oh. Panthers 24, Packers 20.”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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  • Availability CallsJeffery SimmonsChicago BearsOct 30, 2026

    “We'll see his Chicago debut on Monday night against Seattle, who also made a big addition this past week.”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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  • Trade and Signing CallsMontez SweatOct 30, 2026

    Montez Sweat to move — “this being his last hurrah in Chicago”

    “I could see Montez sweat. I could see this being his last hurrah, you know, in Chicago.”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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What others said about the same people

More game outcome picks

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