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Bob MorrisSep 18, 2026

Morris expects cleaner tackling and offensive rhythm to give Denver a close win.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

90Hit · out of 100
Broncos 20–13What happenedcalled Broncos by 3 · won by 7
82.1A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
90.48This callout of 100
+16.24Skillafter difficulty

What Bob Morris said

Here's to hoping the Broncos are focused on the task at hand, that the defense cleans up the tackling issues, and the offense gets into a rhythm for a close win.
Our reading: Denver Broncos 23 — Jaguars 20
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Mile High Roundtable Delivers Predictions & Picks for Broncos-Jaguars
The original
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  1. SaidSep 18
  2. PlayedSep 20
  3. GradedSep 21

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 90.5 out of 100, against 82.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsDenver Broncos

    Denver Broncos 23 — Jaguars 20

    What happenedBroncos 20–13called Broncos by 3 · won by 7
    90.48Hit · naive 82.1

    Closing line (Sep 20): Broncos by 2.5, total 45.5 · this 23–20 calls a bigger Broncos win (by 3) and fewer points (43).

    How this was scored
    score:
    13-20
    skill:
    16.24
    they picked:
    DEN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    90.48
    baseline:
    82.1
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    7
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    −0.52
    predicted margin:
    3
    Think this is wrong?

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