Steve Bannon· Nov 4, 2024

Bannon predicted Kamala Harris would lose the presidency because Black and Hispanic men would abandon her coalition, said Republicans would take the Senate, and forecast Trump wins in Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

“Well, I think we're gonna win Pennsylvania. I really do.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Megyn Kelly Show · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 3 race winners and 1 chamber control — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 4 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 25 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“Well, I think we're gonna win Pennsylvania. I really do. But Pennsylvania is a heavy lift.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“understood six weeks into there how and why Kamala Harris was gonna lose”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“And Carolina's gonna be tough. We have to really represent tomorrow, to win. I think we can. I think we will”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-nc
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in North Carolina
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Chamber ControlNov 4, 2024
“We must win this, and we gotta hold the house. We have to hold the house. I'm glad we're gonna take the senate, but we have to hold the house.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
in their words:
I'm glad we're gonna take the senate
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.