Kent SwansonJan 5, 2026
After the Chiefs' 14-12 loss to the Raiders, Kent laid out the resulting draft order: Kansas City picking ninth overall (and 40th in round two) in the 2026 draft, with New Orleans eighth, Cincinnati tenth, and the Raiders holding the No. 1 pick.
Said on air, transcribed by us · KC Sports Network (podcast)Hear the original
3 of 5calls landed3 hits · 2 misses · all settled
67.4Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls
55.3A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
5 of 5Settlednone still waiting
0Waitingnot graded yet
What Kent Swanson said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromLadies and gentlemen, the Kansas City Chiefs will be picking ninth after that loss to the Las Vegas Raiders.
- Where it was said
- KC Sports Network (podcast)
- The episode
- KCSN Live Postgame Show 1/4: Chiefs Lose 14-12 to Raiders to Lock Up No. 9 Overall Pick
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidJan 4
- GradedAug 14
- 1Cincinnati Bengals to pick at number 10“The Bengals are six and eleven, they'll be picking tenth.”
- 2Kansas City Chiefs to pick at number 9“the Chiefs fall to six and eleven and secure themselves a top 10 selection in the twenty twenty six NFL draft. Ladies and gentlemen, the Kansas City Chiefs will be picking ninth after that loss to the Las Vegas Raiders”
- 3Kansas City Chiefs to pick at number 40“So what'll happen is the Chiefs will move up to the eighth spot in round two... What that would mean the Chiefs are picking fortieth? Ninth and fortieth?”
- 4New Orleans Saints to pick at number 8“The Saints are six and eleven, they will be picking eighth.”
- 5Las Vegas Raiders to pick at number 1“you already got the one seed locked or the the number one pick locked up”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals to pick at number 101 | Team Draft Slot Calls | Picked at 41 | 26.11 | 35.36 | −9.25 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs to pick at number 92 | Team Draft Slot Calls | Picked at 6 | 87.81 | 32.42 | +55.39 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs to pick at number 403 | Team Draft Slot Calls | Picked at 6 | 22.93 | 32.42 | −9.5 | |
| New Orleans Saints to pick at number 84 | Team Draft Slot Calls | Picked at 8 | 100 | 95.76 | +4.24 | |
| Las Vegas Raiders to pick at number 15 | Team Draft Slot Calls | Picked at 1 | 100 | 80.52 | +19.48 | |
| 5 calls · 3 hits · 2 misses · all settled | 67.4 | 55.3 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive5 checkable claims — 5 team draft slot calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 67.4 out of 100, against 55.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pick10They said
41What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
1Team Draft Slot CallsCincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals to pick at number 10
What happenedPicked at 41called 1026.11Miss · naive 35.3626.11this call−35.36a naive guess=−9.25worse than naive×1difficulty=−9.25skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- CIN
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 17 the year before
- skill:
- −9.25
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 26.11
- baseline:
- 35.36
- actual pick:
- 41
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 0
2Team Draft Slot CallsKansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to pick at number 9
What happenedPicked at 6called 987.81Hit · naive 32.4287.81this call−32.42a naive guess=55.39better than naive×1difficulty=+55.39skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- KC
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 32 the year before
- skill:
- 55.39
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 32.42
- actual pick:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 9
- weeks left when called:
- 0
3Team Draft Slot CallsKansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to pick at number 40
What happenedPicked at 6called 4022.93Miss · naive 32.4222.93this call−32.42a naive guess=−9.49worse than naive×1difficulty=−9.5skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- KC
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 32 the year before
- skill:
- −9.5
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 22.93
- baseline:
- 32.42
- actual pick:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 40
- weeks left when called:
- 0
4Team Draft Slot CallsNew Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints to pick at number 8
What happenedPicked at 8called 8100Hit · naive 95.76100this call−95.76a naive guess=4.24better than naive×1difficulty=+4.24skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- NO
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 9 the year before
- skill:
- 4.24
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 95.76
- actual pick:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 0
5Team Draft Slot CallsLas Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders to pick at number 1
What happenedPicked at 1called 1100Hit · naive 80.52100this call−80.52a naive guess=19.48better than naive×1difficulty=+19.48skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- LV
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 6 the year before
- skill:
- 19.48
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 80.52
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
67.4naive 55.3
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.
More team draft slot calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Jake Riepma · Team Draft Slot Calls · Detroit Lions · Hit 100
Filling in on Locked On Lions, Jake Reitma dismisses ESPN's suggestion that Sam LaPorta could be traded, saying LaPorta stays in Detroit as part of the core four. They also break down the edge class ahead of the Lions' pick at No. 17, calling David Bailey the class's top edge prospect with Reuben Bain Jr. next, and picks the Pistons as the NBA's best team.David Harrison · Team Draft Slot Calls · New York Jets · Hit 100
Harrison proposes and defends a hypothetical trade sending Daron Payne plus a third- and sixth-round pick to the Raiders for Maxx Crosby, plus a follow-up trade of the No. 7 pick to the Jets for picks 16 and 33. They also state Fernando Mendoza is expected to go No. 1 overall to the Raiders, and floats the Jets taking David Bailey at No. 7 if they trade up.Rich Eisen · Team Draft Slot Calls · New York Jets · Hit 100
Rich Eisen reaffirmed their pick of the Lions to win the NFC while insisting the Eagles remain the team to beat, predicted the Colts beat the Cardinals on a last-second field goal, said the Chargers will not miss the playoffs, and expects Jake Browning to keep starting in Cincinnati and JJ McCarthy to return as Minnesota's starter. They also praised Jonathan Taylor as the best running back and OPOY-caliber, called Emeka Abuka the offensive rookie of the year, agreed Kyle Shanahan is the coach of the year front-runner, and said the Jets will pick in the top five.Rich Eisen · Team Draft Slot Calls · Miami Dolphins · Close 74
Eisen picked the Bills to finish with the NFL's best record, said the Dolphins look like a top-five draft pick team, chose the Chiefs over the Colts to make the playoffs despite their 0-2 start, and made week-three picks: Bengals to go 3-0, the Jets to win at Tampa, and they leaned Steelers over the Patriots.Rich Eisen · Team Draft Slot Calls · Green Bay Packers · Close 42
Eisen predicts the Cowboys will be picking around No. 32 in next year's draft, i.e. Green Bay's first-rounder will be near the end of the round.