Jake RiepmaFeb 26, 2026

Filling in on Locked On Lions, Jake Reitma dismisses ESPN's suggestion that Sam LaPorta could be traded, saying LaPorta stays in Detroit as part of the core four. They also break down the edge class ahead of the Lions' pick at No. 17, calling David Bailey the class's top edge prospect with Reuben Bain Jr. next, and picks the Pistons as the NBA's best team.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Lions (podcast)Hear the original

3 of 3calls landed3 hits · 1 waiting

100Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls

30.4A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

3 of 4Settled1 still waiting

1Waitingnot graded yet

What Jake Riepma said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

So there you have it. Sam Laporta, I don't think he's going anywhere.

Jake Riepma, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Locked On Lions (podcast)
The episode: TRADE Sam LaPorta?! ESPN Ranks Detroit Lions Sam LaPorta as TOP TRADE Candidate + NFL Combine News
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidFeb 26
GradedAug 14

1David Bailey to be 1st edge off the board“you got David Bailey who is far and away the the top prospect and then Reuben Bain junior right there out of Miami”
2Rueben Bain to be 2nd edge off the board“you got David Bailey who is far and away the the top prospect and then Reuben Bain junior right there out of Miami”
3Detroit Lions to pick at number 17“I really do think the lions can start to be in play at pick number 17 for the rest of that class”
4Sam LaPorta to move to Detroit Lions“I think the odds of them trading him are extremely thin... Sam Laporta, I don't think he's going anywhere. I think he's a pivotal part of the lion's future.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
David Bailey to be 1st edge off the board¹	Position Order Calls	—	100	13.13	+86.87
Rueben Bain to be 2nd edge off the board²	Position Order Calls	—	100	15.85	+84.15
Detroit Lions to pick at number 17³	Team Draft Slot Calls	Picked at 17	100	62.09	+37.91
Sam LaPorta to move to Detroit Lions⁴	Trade and Signing Calls	—	—	—	—
4 calls · 3 hits · 1 waiting			100	30.4

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

4 checkable claims — 2 position order calls, 1 team draft slot call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 30.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Where this call stands in the room

Rueben Bain · 2025 season · positional finish

Jake Riepma — 2 positional finishthe room — 3 calls from 3 punditsmedian 2 positional finishwhat happened — 2 positional finish

Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question, before the answer existed. The bar is what actually happened. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.

Their call against what happened

positional finish

1They said

1What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

1Position Order Calls David Bailey
David Bailey to be 1st edge off the board
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 13.13
100this call13.13a naive guess86.87better than naive1difficulty+86.87skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 26 at random averages 13.13
skill:
86.87
player:
David Bailey
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
13.13
position:
edge
class size:
26
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
1
predicted order:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
2Position Order Calls Rueben Bain
Rueben Bain to be 2nd edge off the board
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 15.85
100this call15.85a naive guess84.15better than naive1difficulty+84.15skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 26 at random averages 15.85
skill:
84.15
player:
Rueben Bain
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
15.85
position:
edge
class size:
26
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
2
predicted order:
2
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
3Team Draft Slot Calls Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions to pick at number 17
What happenedPicked at 17called 17
100Hit · naive 62.09
100this call62.09a naive guess37.91better than naive1difficulty+37.91skill
How this was scored
team:
DET
draft:
2026
naive:
they picked 28 the year before
skill:
37.91
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
62.09
actual pick:
17
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
predicted pick:
17
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
4Trade and Signing Calls Sam LaPorta Detroit Lions
Sam LaPorta to move to Detroit Lions
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 30.4

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

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