John Middlekauff· Apr 23, 2026
On his Three and Out podcast, Middlekauff gave ten bold predictions for the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft: Fernando Mendoza first overall as the only first-round quarterback, Ty Simpson falling out of round one, Jeremiah Love sliding out of the top five, Sonny Styles to the Titans at four, Omar Cooper as the second receiver drafted, the Lions trading up for a tackle, and Aaron Rodgers' return being announced around draft week.
“So my bold prediction is Jeremiah Love does not go in the top five.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
7 checkable claims — 4 mock draft picks, 1 position order call, 1 team draft slot call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
5 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 44.6 out of 100, against 42.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksSonny StylesTennessee TitansApr 23, 2026
Sonny Styles to be picked at number 4
“I do think The titans can Go Sony styles because everyone's telling me they're gonna Ta jeremiah... so you Go mendoza the two pass Rushers. Styles”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Sonny Styles
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
- Mock Draft PicksTy SimpsonApr 23, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked “does not go in the first round” (picks 1–32)
“I do not think That Ty simpson goes in the first round... SO i do not think Ty simpson's off the board On thursday night”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- does not go in the first round (NOT picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveApr 23, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “does not go in the top five” (picks 1–5)
“so my bold prediction Is Jeremiah love does not go in the top five”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- does not go in the top five (NOT picks 1–5)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Position Order CallsOmar CooperApr 23, 2026
Omar Cooper to be 2nd wide receiver off the board
“So Omar Cooper, second wide receiver off the board.”
Miss · 35Scored 35.36a naive guess scored 14.51+20.84 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 36 at random averages 14.51
- skill:
- 20.84
- player:
- Omar Cooper
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 35.36
- baseline:
- 14.51
- position:
- wide receiver
- class size:
- 36
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 5
- predicted order:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Mock Draft PicksFernando MendozaApr 23, 2026
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“I think we see one quarterback get drafted and That's Fernando mendez at number one... So fernando goes one”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Aaron Rodgers to move to Pittsburgh Steelers
“I predicted Aaron Rodgers. We get some news during the draft that Aaron Rodgers officially coming back... It'll definitely happen by Friday.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Team Draft Slot CallsDetroit LionsApr 23, 2026
Detroit Lions to pick “moving up seven or eight spots”
“I think the Lions at seventeen have moving up for a tackle written all over them... But I can see the Lions moving up seven or eight spots and taking an offensive line”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Richard ShermanScore Predictions · Detroit LionsHit · 90Sherman picked winners and several exact scores across the Week 3 slate, favoring Seattle, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Detroit, Green Bay, Carolina, New Orleans, Baltimore, the Rams, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Kansas City, Minnesota, the Giants, Jacksonville and Houston, and named Kenneth Walker his MVP.
- Colin CowherdGame Outcome Picks · Tennessee TitansMiss · 0The co-host (identified only as "Mitchell") made his own Week 3 picks, including blowout wins for Seattle and San Francisco, Cincinnati 27-17, Detroit 37-13, Denver 24-21 over the Rams, and predicted Jonah Coleman takes over the Broncos' running back role.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.