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Derek Brown#12 of 87 NFL pundits · Aug 10, 2025

Derek Brown laid out a round-by-round target list, projecting Ashton Jeanty as a top-three back and Raiders bellcow, Drake London as a possible overall WR1, and Tetairoa McMillan (their must-have player) as a ten-plus touchdown scorer, with late-round upside picks like Dak Prescott and JJ McCarthy at quarterback.

Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original

9 of 24calls landed9 hits · 2 close calls · 13 misses · 1 waiting
42.9Average accuracyout of 100, across 24 calls
50.6A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
24 of 25Settled1 still waiting
#12Derek Brown’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Derek Brown said

London could be the wide receiver one overall this year.
Derek Brown, the lead quote
The episode
FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast - Top Fantasy Football Draft Picks | Targets for EVERY ROUND (Ep. 1642)
The original
Hear the original

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidAug 10, 2025
  2. GradedAug 5–19, 2026

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting
GroupHitsCloseMissesWaitingCalls
Sleeper Calls6091
Player Season Numbers0210
Positional Finishes1030
Depth Chart Calls2000
All92131

How each call scored

25 checkable claims — 16 sleeper calls, 4 positional finishes, 3 player season numbers and 2 depth chart calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 33 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

24 of 25 have settled so far, averaging 42.9 out of 100, against 50.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Sleeper Calls6 hits · 9 misses · 1 waitingShow ▸
  1. Dak Prescott to outplay his draft cost (low end QB one price tag some spots high end QB two)

    “But Dak Prescott is the guy you can get at a low end QB one price tag some spots high end QB two”

    Dak PrescottDallas Cowboys

    100Hit

    100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill

    How this was scored
    call:
    sleeper
    cost:
    low end QB one price tag some spots high end QB two
    naive:
    he repeats last season
    skill:
    200
    player:
    Dak Prescott
    season:
    2025
    correct:
    yes
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    position:
    QB
    had to beat:
    QB32
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual finish:
    QB6
    weeks left when called:
    18
    measured against:
    the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
    Think this is wrong?
  2. Calvin Ridley to outplay his draft cost (round seven)

    “it's Calvin Ridley time. And it's just it's easy, free volume and upside... If cam Ward's good, Calvin Ridley is gonna be very good too.”

    Calvin RidleyTennessee Titans

    0Miss

    0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill

    How this was scored
    call:
    sleeper
    cost:
    round seven
    naive:
    he repeats last season
    skill:
    −200
    player:
    Calvin Ridley
    season:
    2025
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    position:
    WR
    had to beat:
    WR25
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual finish:
    WR112
    weeks left when called:
    18
    measured against:
    the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
    Think this is wrong?
  3. J.J. McCarthy to outplay his draft cost (round eleven)

    “it's JJ McCarthy Tom, a guy that I think is gonna be a locked in QB one”

    J.J. McCarthyMinnesota Vikings

    0Miss

    0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill

    How this was scored
    call:
    sleeper
    cost:
    round eleven
    naive:
    a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
    skill:
    −200
    player:
    J.J. McCarthy
    season:
    2025
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    position:
    QB
    had to beat:
    QB12
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual finish:
    QB32
    weeks left when called:
    18
    measured against:
    the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
    Think this is wrong?
  4. Jayden Higgins to outplay his draft cost (round ten)

    “So Jayde Higgins, Yes, as a guy you're drafting as your wide receiver five on a lot of different teams. We could be mid season he's producing as a borderline two three for your lineups.”

    Jayden HigginsHouston Texans

    0Miss

    0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill

    How this was scored
    call:
    sleeper
    cost:
    round ten
    naive:
    a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
    skill:
    −200
    player:
    Jayden Higgins
    season:
    2025
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    position:
    WR
    had to beat:
    WR36
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual finish:
    WR47
    weeks left when called:
    18
    measured against:
    the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
    Think this is wrong?
  5. Trey McBride to outplay his draft cost (third round)

    “Trey McBride could be one of those guys again talking about drafting players early that could define leagues... people are saying, dude, why didn't I take trade McBride in the first round”

    Trey McBrideArizona Cardinals

    100Hit

    100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill

    How this was scored
    call:
    sleeper
    cost:
    third round
    naive:
    the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
    skill:
    200
    player:
    Trey McBride
    season:
    2025
    correct:
    yes
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    position:
    TE
    cost round:
    3
    had to beat:
    TE7
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual finish:
    TE1
    weeks left when called:
    18
    measured against:
    the cost the source quoted — third round
    Think this is wrong?
  6. Jakobi Meyers to outplay his draft cost (round eight)

    “So yes, draft all the Jacobe Myers.”

    Jakobi MeyersLas Vegas Raiders

    0Miss

    0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill

    How this was scored
    call:
    sleeper
    cost:
    round eight
    naive:
    he repeats last season
    skill:
    −200
    player:
    Jakobi Meyers
    season:
    2025
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    position:
    WR
    had to beat:
    WR29
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual finish:
    WR38
    weeks left when called:
    18
    measured against:
    the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
    Think this is wrong?
  7. Brashard Smith to outplay his draft cost (round fourteen)

    “I've been talk about Burshard Smith... the upside is massive here. He could be the Jack McKinnon in this offense... It needs to be drafted a ton of spots.”

    Brashard SmithKansas City Chiefs

    0Miss

    0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill

    How this was scored
    call:
    sleeper
    cost:
    round fourteen
    naive:
    a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
    skill:
    −200
    player:
    Brashard Smith
    season:
    2025
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    position:
    RB
    had to beat:
    RB24
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual finish:
    RB70
    weeks left when called:
    18
    measured against:
    the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
    Think this is wrong?
  8. Drake London to outplay his draft cost (round two)

    “taking guys in the round two that could have that honestly have Round one type of profiles and could lead their position... Drake London is the guy that I go with here.”

    Drake LondonAtlanta Falcons

    0Miss

    0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill

    How this was scored
    call:
    sleeper
    cost:
    round two
    naive:
    he repeats last season
    skill:
    −200
    player:
    Drake London
    season:
    2025
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    position:
    WR
    had to beat:
    WR6
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual finish:
    WR17
    weeks left when called:
    18
    measured against:
    the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
    Think this is wrong?
  9. Tre Harris to outplay his draft cost (round twelve)

    “it's Trey Harris And I will caveat this with if Keenan Allen does sign there, then I'm going to drop him... Trey Harris is the guy that I want to take from this offense.”

    Tre HarrisLos Angeles Chargers

    0Miss

    0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill

    How this was scored
    call:
    sleeper
    cost:
    round twelve
    naive:
    a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
    skill:
    −200
    player:
    Tre Harris
    season:
    2025
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    position:
    WR
    had to beat:
    WR36
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual finish:
    WR95
    weeks left when called:
    18
    measured against:
    the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
    Think this is wrong?
  10. RJ Harvey to outplay his draft cost (fifth round)

    “Yes, RJ. Harvey fifth round every single time, auto lock on pick every single time. I'll take him in the fourth.”

    RJ HarveyDenver Broncos

    0Miss

    0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill

    How this was scored
    call:
    sleeper
    cost:
    fifth round
    naive:
    the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
    skill:
    −200
    player:
    RJ Harvey
    season:
    2025
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    position:
    RB
    cost round:
    5
    had to beat:
    RB20
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual finish:
    RB22
    weeks left when called:
    18
    measured against:
    the cost the source quoted — fifth round
    Think this is wrong?
  11. De'Von Achane to outplay his draft cost (the beginning of the second)

    “He's my twelfth overall player. I want to stay ahead of consensus on a Chan. I think he's worth a first round pick”

    De'Von AchaneMiami Dolphins

    100Hit

    100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill

    How this was scored
    call:
    sleeper
    cost:
    the beginning of the second
    naive:
    he repeats last season
    skill:
    200
    player:
    De'Von Achane
    season:
    2025
    correct:
    yes
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    position:
    RB
    had to beat:
    RB9
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual finish:
    RB7
    weeks left when called:
    18
    measured against:
    the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
    Think this is wrong?
  12. Ashton Jeanty to outplay his draft cost (eleventh overall)

    “If you're looking at ADP on fantasypros dot com right now, he's eleventh overall... sometimes you can get him in round two or at the back end of round one.”

    Ashton JeantyLas Vegas Raiders

    100Hit

    100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill

    How this was scored
    call:
    sleeper
    cost:
    eleventh overall
    naive:
    a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
    skill:
    200
    player:
    Ashton Jeanty
    season:
    2025
    correct:
    yes
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    position:
    RB
    had to beat:
    RB24
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual finish:
    RB15
    weeks left when called:
    18
    measured against:
    the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
    Think this is wrong?
  13. Kenneth Walker III to outplay his draft cost (the fourth round at RB two price tags)

    “When you can get a guy that was an RB one last year in the fourth round at RB two price tags, you do it all day”

    Kenneth Walker IIISeattle Seahawks

    0Miss

    0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill

    How this was scored
    call:
    sleeper
    cost:
    the fourth round at RB two price tags
    naive:
    the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
    skill:
    −200
    player:
    Kenneth Walker III
    season:
    2025
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    position:
    RB
    cost round:
    4
    had to beat:
    RB13
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual finish:
    RB21
    weeks left when called:
    18
    measured against:
    the cost the source quoted — the fourth round at RB two price tags
    Think this is wrong?
  14. Romeo Doubs to outplay his draft cost (round thirteen)

    “it's Romeo Dobbs... If you look at just his separation metrics on a per route basis, this guy screams like big breakout season coming.”

    Romeo DoubsGreen Bay Packers

    100Hit

    100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill

    How this was scored
    call:
    sleeper
    cost:
    round thirteen
    naive:
    he repeats last season
    skill:
    200
    player:
    Romeo Doubs
    season:
    2025
    correct:
    yes
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    position:
    WR
    had to beat:
    WR57
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual finish:
    WR34
    weeks left when called:
    18
    measured against:
    the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
    Think this is wrong?
  15. Tetairoa McMillan to outplay his draft cost (round six)

    “this is a guy you could draft as your wide receiver three for your teams... I think he is going to be a locked in wide receiver two... at this spot in a draft. That is free money.”

    Tetairoa McMillanCarolina Panthers

    100Hit

    100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill

    How this was scored
    call:
    sleeper
    cost:
    round six
    naive:
    a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
    skill:
    200
    player:
    Tetairoa McMillan
    season:
    2025
    correct:
    yes
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    position:
    WR
    had to beat:
    WR36
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual finish:
    WR13
    weeks left when called:
    18
    measured against:
    the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
    Think this is wrong?
  16. Jarquez Hunter to outplay his draft cost (Round fifteen)

    “I'm going with Jarquest Hunter... Hunter is the guy that is built different than Kyrien Williams and Blake korm.”

    Jarquez HunterLos Angeles Rams

    —Waiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

Player Season Numbers2 close calls · 1 missShow ▸
  1. Tetairoa McMillan to record 10 receiving tds

    “They repeat that this year with Tedroe may Millen at the top. He's spiking ten plus touchdowns.”

    Tetairoa McMillanCarolina Panthers

    7called 10
    40Close

    40 − 0 naive = 40 × 2 difficulty = +80 skill

    How this was scored
    naive:
    3.4
    skill:
    80
    what happened:
    7
    player:
    Tetairoa McMillan
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    40
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    10
    statistic:
    receiving_tds
    difficulty:
    2
    last season:
    no prior season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    position average:
    3.4
    zero at percent out:
    50
    Think this is wrong?
  2. Ashton Jeanty to record 80 receptions

    “he could be a guy that catches eighty balls this year and nobody should be surprised”

    Ashton JeantyLas Vegas Raiders

    55called 80
    37.5Miss

    37.5 − 0 naive = 37.5 × 2 difficulty = +75 skill

    How this was scored
    naive:
    19.97
    skill:
    75
    what happened:
    55
    player:
    Ashton Jeanty
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    37.5
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    80
    statistic:
    receptions
    difficulty:
    2
    last season:
    no prior season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    position average:
    19.97
    zero at percent out:
    50
    Think this is wrong?
  3. Jalen Hurts to record 10 rushing tds

    “the rushing touchdowns are going anywhere Toush push or not, doesn't matter. He's going to run for ten plus.”

    Jalen HurtsPhiladelphia Eagles

    8called 10
    60Close

    60 − 88.54 naive = −28.54 × 2 difficulty = −57.09 skill

    How this was scored
    naive:
    8.49
    skill:
    −57.09
    what happened:
    8
    player:
    Jalen Hurts
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    60
    baseline:
    88.54
    they said:
    10
    statistic:
    rushing_tds
    difficulty:
    2
    last season:
    14
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    position average:
    2.97
    zero at percent out:
    50
    Think this is wrong?
Positional Finishes1 hit · 3 missesShow ▸
  1. Ashton Jeanty to finish top 3 at his position, by fantasy points

    “Genty has the receiving upside and the volume upside to be a top three back in his rookie season.”

    Ashton JeantyLas Vegas Raiders

    Finished #15called #3 · by fantasy points
    0Miss

    0 − 25 naive = −25 × 2 difficulty = −50 skill

    How this was scored
    skill:
    −50
    player:
    Ashton Jeanty
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    12
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    25
    position:
    RB
    ranked by:
    fantasy points
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    no prior season — the startable tier at RB
    weeks in the season:
    18
    naive finish:
    24
    actual finish:
    15
    weeks left when called:
    18
    predicted finish:
    3
    Think this is wrong?
  2. Drake London to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points

    “London could be the wide receiver one overall this year.”

    Drake LondonAtlanta Falcons

    Finished #17called #1 · by fantasy points
    0Miss

    0 − 8.33 naive = −8.33 × 2 difficulty = −16.67 skill

    How this was scored
    skill:
    −16.67
    player:
    Drake London
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    12
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    8.33
    position:
    WR
    ranked by:
    fantasy points
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    where he finished last season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    naive finish:
    6
    actual finish:
    17
    weeks left when called:
    18
    predicted finish:
    1
    Think this is wrong?
  3. J.J. McCarthy to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points

    “a guy that I think is gonna be a locked in QB one”

    J.J. McCarthyMinnesota Vikings

    Finished #32called #12 · by fantasy points
    0Miss

    0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill

    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    player:
    J.J. McCarthy
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    12
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    position:
    QB
    ranked by:
    fantasy points
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    no prior season — the startable tier at QB
    weeks in the season:
    18
    naive finish:
    12
    actual finish:
    32
    weeks left when called:
    18
    predicted finish:
    12
    Think this is wrong?
  4. Dak Prescott to finish top 5 at his position, by fantasy points

    “he legitimately could revisit and put up top five numbers this year”

    Dak PrescottDallas Cowboys

    Finished #6called #5 · by fantasy points
    91.67Hit

    91.67 − 0 naive = 91.67 × 2 difficulty = +183.33 skill

    How this was scored
    skill:
    183.33
    player:
    Dak Prescott
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    12
    accuracy:
    91.67
    baseline:
    0
    position:
    QB
    ranked by:
    fantasy points
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    where he finished last season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    naive finish:
    32
    actual finish:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    18
    predicted finish:
    5
    Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls2 hitsShow ▸
  1. Ashton Jeanty to be 1st on the depth chart

    “He's going to be their bellcal running back.”

    Ashton JeantyLas Vegas Raiders

    No. 1called No. 1 · by rushing yards
    100Hit

    100 − 91.67 naive = 8.33 × 2 difficulty = +16.67 skill

    How this was scored
    club:
    LV
    skill:
    16.67
    player:
    Ashton Jeanty
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    91.67
    position:
    RB
    naive slot:
    2
    actual slot:
    1
    difficulty:
    2
    measured by:
    rushing yards
    the naive guess:
    no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
    weeks in the season:
    18
    predicted slot:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?
  2. Jayden Higgins to be 2nd on the depth chart

    “he's going to be the starter in two wide receiver sets opposite Nico Collins”

    Jayden HigginsHouston Texans

    No. 2called No. 2 · by receptions
    100Hit

    100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill

    How this was scored
    club:
    HOU
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Jayden Higgins
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    position:
    WR
    naive slot:
    2
    actual slot:
    2
    difficulty:
    2
    measured by:
    receptions
    the naive guess:
    no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
    weeks in the season:
    18
    predicted slot:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

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