Matt DerySep 10, 2026

Derry predicted a Lions win over the Saints by a 24-20 score, with the Saints covering the 7.5-point spread.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Saints (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 2calls landed1 hit · 1 miss · all settled

46.4Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls

98.2A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

1Games calledeveryone’s picks below

0Waitingnot graded yet

What Matt Dery said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I have the Saints losing this game, and and the the Lions winning.

Matt Dery, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Locked On Saints (podcast)
The episode: SLEEPER: New Orleans Saints’ Tyler Shough Ready To Surprise As Saints Look To Go From Worst To First
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 10
PlayedSep 13
GradedSep 15–25

1Tom Kennedy to land on the practice squad“the lines are gonna elevate Tom Kennedy from the practice squad to be their punt returner”
2Detroit Lions 24 — Saints 20“I said 20 to 24, so that they do end up covering.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Tom Kennedy to land on the practice squad¹	Roster Spot Calls	3 weeks on a 53	0	100	−200
Detroit Lions 24 — Saints 20²	Score Predictions	Lions 31–30	92.86	96.35	−6.98
2 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · all settled			46.4	98.2

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

2 checkable claims — 1 roster spot call and 1 score prediction — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 46.4 out of 100, against 98.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Roster Spot Calls Tom Kennedy Detroit Lions
Tom Kennedy to land on the practice squad
What happened3 weeks on a 53
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive2difficulty−200skill
How this was scored
club:
DET
skill:
−200
player:
Tom Kennedy
season:
2026
claimed:
he lands on the practice squad
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this is wrong?
2Score Predictions Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions 24 — Saints 20
What happenedLions 31–30called Lions by 4 · won by 1
92.86Hit · naive 96.35
92.86this call96.35a naive guess−3.49worse than naive2difficulty−6.98skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Lions by 7, total 49.5 · this 24–20 calls a closer game (Lions by 4) and fewer points (44). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.
How this was scored
score:
30-31
skill:
−6.98
they picked:
DET
season:
2026
accuracy:
92.86
baseline:
96.35
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
1
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
4
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
46.4naive 98.2