Justin MeloAug 10, 2026
Melo published a very early 2027 NFL first-round mock draft with four quarterbacks going in the top four picks, led by Arch Manning at No. 1 to Arizona, and Jeremiah Smith as the top non-QB at No. 5.
Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original
What Justin Melo said
If Manning continues developing in the right direction, he'll be the favorite to go No. 1 overall.
- Where it was published
- Sports Illustrated
- The piece
- 2027 NFL Mock Draft: First-Round Projection Before College Football Season Changes Everything
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
Box score, round by round
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Picks 1–32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | |
| All | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 |
How the mock scored
32 checkable claims — 32 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 61 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
Of the 14 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands above the room on 5 and below it on 9.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Every pick’s score
Draft board
HitCloseMissWaitingPicks 1–3232 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
| Pick | Team | Player | Pos | Went | Verdict | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | Arch Manning | QB | — | — | |
| 2 | MIA | Matt Moore | QB | — | — | |
| 3 | CLE | Julian Sayin | QB | — | — | |
| 4 | NYJ | C.J. Carr | QB | — | — | |
| 5 | LV | Jeremiah Smith | WR | — | — | |
| 6 | ATL | Jordan Seaton | OT | — | — | |
| 7 | TEN | Dylan Stewart | EDGE | — | — | |
| 8 | CAR | Leonard Moore | CB | — | — | |
| 9 | NO | Colin Simmons | EDGE | — | — | |
| 10 | NYG | Cam Coleman | WR | — | — | |
| 11 | NYJ | Will Echoles | DT | — | — | |
| 12 | WAS | KJ Bolden | S | — | — | |
| 13 | MIN | Ellis Robinson | CB | — | — | |
| 14 | PIT | Drew Mestemaker | QB | — | — | |
| 15 | TB | Drake Lindsey | QB | — | — | |
| 16 | JAX | Tae Johnson | S | — | — | |
| 17 | CHI | Jadan Baugh | RB | — | — | |
| 18 | NYJ | Kelley Jones | CB | — | — | |
| 19 | CIN | Brice Pollock | CB | — | — | |
| 20 | DEN | Jamari Johnson | TE | — | — | |
| 21 | DET | Kade Pieper | IOL | — | — | |
| 22 | SF | Zabien Brown | CB | — | — | |
| 23 | DAL | Charlie Becker | WR | — | — | |
| 24 | HOU | Carter Smith | OL | — | — | |
| 25 | LAC | Justin Scott | DT | — | — | |
| 26 | KC | Nick Nash | WR | — | — | |
| 27 | NE | A'Mauri Washington | DT | — | — | |
| 28 | PHI | Yhonzae Pierre | EDGE | — | — | |
| 29 | SEA | Matayo Uiagalelei | EDGE | — | — | |
| 30 | BAL | David Stone | DT | — | — | |
| 31 | BUF | Carson Green | IOL | — | — | |
| 32 | CLE | Kenyatta Jackson | EDGE | — | — |
Who this take is about
New York Jets, Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Baltimore Ravens, Las Vegas Raiders, Atlanta Falcons, Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Pittsburgh Steelers, Washington Commanders, Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.Blaine Grisak · Mock Draft Picks · Brian Thomas Jr. · Hit 84
Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.