John Middlekauff Predictions: Record, Accuracy, Every Take, page 2

Sep 25, 2026

Reacting to the Packers' blowout loss at Lambeau, Middlekauff said Green Bay's own pick (now owned by the Jets) will land somewhere between 7 and 12 overall, picked Cincinnati to beat Pittsburgh and expected Seattle and Kansas City to roll over Washington and Miami. They also guessed Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss would run about a 4.48-4.50 forty, said Seattle won't trade Drew Lock, and expected Sam Darnold to play in Week 3.Game Outcome Picks · 8 calls

1 hit · 2 misses · 5 waiting · 1 of 3 graded calls landed

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Kansas City Chiefs to beat Miami
“the Chiefs now, Monday night football, Sunday night football, getting up for road game against, I'm pretty sure, the least talented team in the league. If they try, that's a massacre.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+189 skill
How this was scored
won:
KC
score:
24-10
skill:
189
they picked:
KC
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
MIA
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Closing line (Sep 27): Chiefs by 10 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 5 in 6 (82%).
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Seattle Seahawks to beat Washington
“Seattle, Washington, Kansas City, Miami, those... Those got blowout written all over them... if those two teams try, it will not be close.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-189 skill
How this was scored
won:
WAS
score:
31-33
skill:
−189
they picked:
SEA
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
WAS
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Closing line (Sep 27): Seahawks by 8.5 · favorite pick, Seahawks about 3 in 4 (77%).
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Cincinnati Bengals to beat Pittsburgh
“So this is why I like Cincinnati... to me, the only way I see Cincinnati not winning this game is like it's going to have to be one of those banana Steelers defense do crazy shit.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-189 skill
How this was scored
won:
PIT
score:
27-30
skill:
−189
they picked:
CIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
PIT
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Closing line (Sep 27): Bengals by 3.5 · favorite pick, Bengals 62%.
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Apr 23, 2026

On their Three and Out podcast, Middlekauff gave ten bold predictions for the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft: Fernando Mendoza first overall as the only first-round quarterback, Ty Simpson falling out of round one, Jeremiah Love sliding out of the top five, Sonny Styles to the Titans at four, Omar Cooper as the second receiver drafted, the Lions trading up for a tackle, and Aaron Rodgers' return being announced around draft week.Mock Draft Picks, Position Order Calls · 7 calls

2 hits · 3 misses · 2 waiting · 2 of 5 graded calls landed

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Ty Simpson to be picked “does not go in the first round” (picks 1–32)
“I do not think That Ty simpson goes in the first round... SO i do not think Ty simpson's off the board On thursday night”
Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
50
player:
Ty Simpson
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
actual pick:
13
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0
predicted pick:
does not go in the first round (NOT picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
100
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Sonny Styles to be picked at number 4
“I do think The titans can Go Sony styles because everyone's telling me they're gonna Ta jeremiah... so you Go mendoza the two pass Rushers. Styles”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
50
player:
Sonny Styles
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
87.81
baseline:
50
actual pick:
7
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
87.81
predicted pick:
4
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
100
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Omar Cooper to be 2nd wide receiver off the board
“So Omar Cooper, second wide receiver off the board.”
Miss · 35Scored 35.36a naive guess scored 14.51+20.84 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 36 at random averages 14.51
skill:
20.84
player:
Omar Cooper
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
35.36
baseline:
14.51
position:
wide receiver
class size:
36
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
5
predicted order:
2
weeks left when called:
0
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Jeremiyah Love to be picked “does not go in the top five” (picks 1–5)
“so my bold prediction Is Jeremiah love does not go in the top five”
Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
50
player:
Jeremiyah Love
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
actual pick:
3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0
predicted pick:
does not go in the top five (NOT picks 1–5)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
100
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Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“I think we see one quarterback get drafted and That's Fernando mendez at number one... So fernando goes one”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
50
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
1
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
100
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Mar 2, 2026

After the NFL Combine, Middlekauff predicted Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 overall, that Notre Dame running back Jeremiah Love won't fall out of the top 10 (as high as No. 4 to the Giants, no further than the Saints at No. 8), plus top-10/top-20 landing spots for Caleb Downs, Carnell Tate and Oregon's tight end. They also forecast quarterback movement: Tua and Kyler Murray being cut, Kyler as a backup, someone trading for Tyson Bagent, and the Saints becoming a sleeper playoff team if they land Love.Mock Draft Picks · 10 calls

4 hits · 1 close call · 5 waiting · 4 of 5 graded calls landed

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Carnell Tate to be picked “top twenty” (picks 1–20)
“And Carnel Tate same thing. He's gonna go in the top twenty.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Carnell Tate
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
4
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top twenty (picks 1–20)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
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Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“The only thing we know for certain is for Mendoza is going number one.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
1
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
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Caleb Downs to be picked “lock top ten pick” (picks 1–10)
“Caleb Downs I didn't even think did that much at the combine. Don't blame him, He's a lock top ten pick”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Caleb Downs
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
11
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
lock top ten pick (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
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Jeremiyah Love to be picked “not sniffing falling out of the top ten; goes as high as four with the Giants, farthest fall would be the Saints at eight” (picks 1–10)
“So I think the I think Jeremiah lovkick goes high as four with the Titans, I mean the Giants... I think the farthest key word of quote unquote fall would be the Saints at eight... he's not sniffing falling out of the of the top ten.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Jeremiyah Love
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
not sniffing falling out of the top ten; goes as high as four with the Giants, farthest fall would be the Saints at eight (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
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Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “top ten” (picks 1–10)
“Sadik. I mean that's I don't know if he's gonna go top five, but he's going in the top ten.”
Close · 77Scored 77.11a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Kenyon Sadiq
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
77.11
baseline:
50
actual pick:
16
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
77.11
predicted pick:
top ten (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
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Sep 10, 2025

Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. They are pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying they'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. They also see Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix.Mock Draft Picks, Award Picks, Draft Bust Calls · 5 calls

5 misses · 0 of 5 graded calls landed

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John Mateer to be picked “first round pick” (picks 1–32)
“And John Mattier is going to be a first round pick.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
John Mateer
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
undrafted
outcome:
went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
actual pick:
undrafted
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0
predicted pick:
first round pick (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
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Josh Allen to win MVP
“Josh all and Lamar Jackson are gonna continue to rack up MVPs. I would be stunned if one of those two guys doesn't win the MVP this year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Josh Allen
season:
2025
who won:
Matthew Stafford
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1.94
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
17
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Caleb Williams to disappoint at the next level
“if I was a betting man right now, I would say this is not gonna work. I don't think Caleb is good... you would put money on Caleb Williams not working out... worst case scenario, Kayleb Williams is a bust, which is a tough word to say when you draft a guy number one overall”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skill
How this was scored
pick:
1
draft:
2024
naive:
the pick returned what picks at that cost typically return
skill:
−194
player:
Caleb Williams
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
QB
best finish:
QB5 in 2025
difficulty:
1.94
had to reach:
QB8
weeks in the season:
18
seasons played:
3
weeks left when called:
17
measured against:
the 31 QBs taken within 16 picks of 1, across every draft we hold
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Lamar Jackson to win MVP
“Josh all and Lamar Jackson are gonna continue to rack up MVPs. I would be stunned if one of those two guys doesn't win the MVP this year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Lamar Jackson
season:
2025
who won:
Matthew Stafford
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1.94
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
17
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John Mateer to be picked “top fifteen to twenty pick” (picks 1–15)
“He will be in the Heisman mix, and he will be discussed as a top fifteen to twenty pick.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
John Mateer
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
undrafted
outcome:
went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
actual pick:
undrafted
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0
predicted pick:
top fifteen to twenty pick (picks 1–15)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
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John Middlekauff

Every graded call, continued · page 2