2026 Vermont gubernatorial election
Governors · November 3, 2026 · not yet held
The ballot
- Amanda Janoo (Democratic)—
- Brian Judd (Independent)—
- Dean Roy (Other parties)—
- June Goodband (Green)—
- Phil Scott (Republican, incumbent)—
Beside the pundits
Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.
The market · Polymarket · October 3, 2026
- Phil Scott78¢
- Amanda Janoo20¢
A price in cents is the market's probability. Prices move; this is the day's close as we read it.
The polls · VoteHub · 1 poll in 21 days · through September 21, 2026
- Amanda Janoo49.0%
- Phil Scott43.0%
- Brian Judd2.0%
- Dean Roy0.0%
Amanda Janoo by 6.0 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.
The 5 most recent polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-09-17 – 2026-09-21 | 835 LV | Amanda Janoo 49% · Phil Scott 43% · Brian Judd 2% · Dean Roy 0% |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-07-15 – 2026-07-20 | 954 LV | Phil Scott 44% · Amanda Janoo 33% · June Goodband 2% |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-07-15 – 2026-07-20 | 954 LV | Phil Scott 43% · Aly Richards 35% · June Goodband 2% · Dean Roy 1% |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-06-18 – 2026-06-23 | 511 LV | Phil Scott 42% · Amanda Janoo 27% |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-06-18 – 2026-06-23 | 511 LV | Phil Scott 41% · Ally Richards 25% |
What the field called
Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.
- Phil Scott1 pick
Every claim about this race (1)
Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.
Ryan Girdusky: Phil Scott wins VT governorship (2026) — “likely to win”
Race Winners · Sep 30, 2026 · 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election · the take
Pending