Ryan Girdusky· Sep 30, 2026
The host handicapped several midterm races: he expects Dan Sullivan to hang on in Alaska's Senate race, Republicans to win again in New Hampshire and Vermont, Abdul El-Sayed to take Michigan's Senate seat, Jon Ossoff to win Georgia comfortably, and Florida to stay solidly red with Ashley Moody and Byron Donalds both winning by high single to double digits.
“I think Donald's going to win by like 9 or 10 points, 8 or 9 points.”
said on air or in an interview · The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show · read the original →
7 checkable claims — 5 race winners and 2 race margins — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
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7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersSep 30, 2026
“Republicans are likely to win in New Hampshire and Vermont again.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race MarginsSep 30, 2026
“I think Moody will probably win by 10 points or more.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race MarginsSep 30, 2026
“I think Donald's going to win by like 9 or 10 points, 8 or 9 points. I don't think it's that competitive.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 30, 2026
“Republicans are likely to win in New Hampshire and Vermont again.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 30, 2026
“No, no, no, no. I think he's going to win the Senate seat.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 30, 2026
“and he's going to win in Georgia very likely by a big number”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 30, 2026
“And Mary Patola, for all Democrats' hopes, wishes, and dreams, She's been burning money pretty quickly... But I wouldn't be surprised if he pulls it out.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him.
- Carl CannonRace WinnersHit · 100Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
- Lanny DavisRace WinnersMiss · 0Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency.
- Sam WangRace WinnersMiss · 0Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
- Steve DeaceRace WinnersHit · 100On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%.