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Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →
A first-round mock-draft pick missed where the player actually went by 10.2 picks on average, across 1,676 graded first-round picks; mocked in late day 3 (176+), the average miss grows to 49.6 picks.
Among the 11 pundits with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Chris Brockman has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +50.0, 76.0% accuracy across 36 graded picks.
Among the 15 publishers with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Locked On Chiefs (podcast) has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +49.2, 67.8% accuracy across 53 graded picks.
67% settled
out of 100
Takes in each band
2,919 / 4,387
graded
1,468 still pending
By season
Across the 2,100 graded exact-pick calls from every pundit and every draft, not only the 5 above: average miss on top-ten picks 2.7 slots across 738 calls; rest of round one 7.2 slots across 690.
3851–3875 of 4,387
Trevor Etienne to be picked at number 187
187 Minnesota Vikings RB Trevor Etienne Georgia
Gunnar Helm to be picked at number 91
91 Baltimore Ravens TE Gunnar Helm Texas
Ozzy Trapilo to be picked at number 80
80 Indianapolis Colts OT Ozzy Trapilo Boston College
Jack Kiser to be picked at number 202
202 Los Angeles Rams LB Jack Kiser Notre Dame
Logan Brown to be picked at number 130
130 Detroit Lions OT Logan Brown Kansas
Vernon Broughton to be picked at number 116
116 Miami Dolphins IDL Vernon Broughton Texas
Tyler Shough to be picked at number 90
90 Los Angeles Rams QB Tyler Shough Louisville
Kelvin Banks Jr. to be picked at number 31
31. Kansas City Chiefs Selection: Kelvin Banks, OT, Texas
Dylan Sampson to be picked at number 83
83 Pittsburgh Steelers RB Dylan Sampson Tennessee
DJ Giddens to be picked at number 147
147 San Francisco 49ers RB DJ Giddens Kansas State
Trey Wedig to be picked at number 246
246 New York Giants OT Trey Wedig Indiana
Kitan Crawford to be picked at number 212
212 Baltimore Ravens SAF Kitan Crawford Nevada
Jalon Walker to be picked at number 8
8. Carolina Panthers Selection: Jalon Walker, EDGE, Georgia
Tyler Cooper to be picked at number 252
252 San Francisco 49ers IOL Tyler Cooper Minnesota
Dante Trader Jr. to be picked at number 209
209 Los Angeles Chargers SAF Dante Trader Jr. Maryland
Brandon Adams to be picked at number 243
243 Baltimore Ravens CB Brandon Adams UCF
Jordan James to be picked at number 223
223 Seattle Seahawks RB Jordan James Oregon
Justin Walley to be picked at number 207
207 New York Jets CB Justin Walley Minnesota
Shemar Stewart to be picked at number 23
23. Green Bay Packers Selection: Shemar Stewart, EDGE, Texas A&M
Rylie Mills to be picked at number 184
184 New Orleans Saints IDL Rylie Mills Notre Dame
Kaden Prather to be picked at number 218
218 Atlanta Falcons WR Kaden Prather Maryland
Nick Nash to be picked at number 226
226 Kansas City Chiefs WR Nick Nash San Jose State
Elic Ayomanor to be picked at number 63
63 Kansas City Chiefs WR Elic Ayomanor Stanford
Kaimon Rucker to be picked at number 225
225 Arizona Cardinals EDGE Kaimon Rucker North Carolina
Isaiah Bond to be picked at number 157
157 Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Isaiah Bond Texas