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Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →
A first-round mock-draft pick missed where the player actually went by 10.2 picks on average, across 1,676 graded first-round picks; mocked in late day 3 (176+), the average miss grows to 49.6 picks.
Among the 11 pundits with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Chris Brockman has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +50.0, 76.0% accuracy across 36 graded picks.
Among the 15 publishers with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Locked On Chiefs (podcast) has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +49.2, 67.8% accuracy across 53 graded picks.
67% settled
out of 100
Takes in each band
2,919 / 4,387
graded
1,468 still pending
By season
Across the 2,100 graded exact-pick calls from every pundit and every draft, not only the 5 above: average miss on top-ten picks 2.7 slots across 738 calls; rest of round one 7.2 slots across 690.
3826–3850 of 4,387
Wyatt Milum to be picked at number 113
113 San Francisco 49ers IOL Wyatt Milum West Virginia
Benjamin Morrison to be picked at number 45
45 Indianapolis Colts CB Benjamin Morrison Notre Dame
Brashard Smith to be picked at number 183
183 Baltimore Ravens RB Brashard Smith SMU
Shamari Simmons to be picked at number 257
257 Kansas City Chiefs SAF Shamari Simmons Arizona State
Mykel Williams to be picked at number 10
10. Chicago Bears Selection: Mykel Williams, EDGE, Georgia
Jack Sawyer to be picked at number 128
128 Washington Commanders EDGE Jack Sawyer Ohio State
Quinn Ewers to be picked at number 145
145 New York Jets QB Quinn Ewers Texas
Sam Brown to be picked at number 222
222 Las Vegas Raiders WR Sam Brown MIami FL
Mello Dotson to be picked at number 178
178 Tennessee Titans CB Mello Dotson Kansas
Quinshon Judkins to be picked at number 87
87 Green Bay Packers RB Quinshon Judkins Ohio State
Howard Cross III to be picked at number 186
186 New York Jets IDL Howard Cross III Notre Dame
Harold Fannin Jr. to be picked at number 110
110 New York Jets TE Harold Fannin Jr. Bowling Green
Riley Leonard to be picked at number 163
163 Carolina Panthers QB Riley Leonard Notre Dame
Kenneth Grant to be picked at number 11
11. San Francisco 49ers Selection: Kenneth Grant, IDL, Michigan
Nazir Stackhouse to be picked at number 211
211 Dallas Cowboys IDL Nazir Stackhouse Georgia
Carson Schwesinger to be picked at number 26
26. Los Angeles Rams Selection: Carson Schwesinger, LB, UCLA
Dillon Gabriel to be picked at number 155
155 Miami Dolphins QB Dillon Gabriel Oregon
Will Howard to be picked at number 108
108 Las Vegas Raiders QB Will Howard Ohio State
Oluwafemi Oladejo to be picked at number 77
77 New England Patriots EDGE Olu Oladejo UCLA
Malachi Moore to be picked at number 138
138 San Francisco 49ers SAF Malachi Moore Alabama
Tetairoa McMillan to be picked at number 12
12. Dallas Cowboys Selection: Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
Ashton Gillotte to be picked at number 86
86 Los Angeles Chargers EDGE Ashton Gillotte Louisville
Aireontae Ersery to be picked at number 58
58 Houston Texans OT Aireontae Ersery Minnesota
Dominic Lovett to be picked at number 191
191 Denver Broncos WR Dominic Lovett Georgia
Collin Oliver to be picked at number 236
236 Houston Texans EDGE Collin Oliver Oklahoma State