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Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →
A first-round mock-draft pick missed where the player actually went by 10.2 picks on average, across 1,676 graded first-round picks; mocked in late day 3 (176+), the average miss grows to 49.6 picks.
Among the 11 pundits with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Chris Brockman has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +50.0, 76.0% accuracy across 36 graded picks.
Among the 15 publishers with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Locked On Chiefs (podcast) has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +49.2, 67.8% accuracy across 53 graded picks.
67% settled
out of 100
Takes in each band
2,919 / 4,387
graded
1,468 still pending
By season
Across the 2,100 graded exact-pick calls from every pundit and every draft, not only the 5 above: average miss on top-ten picks 2.7 slots across 738 calls; rest of round one 7.2 slots across 690.
3876–3900 of 4,387
Jeffrey Bassa to be picked at number 143
143 Las Vegas Raiders LB Jeffrey Bassa Oregon
Jason Marshall Jr. to be picked at number 216
216 Cleveland Browns CB Jason Marshall Jr. Florida
Will Johnson to be picked at number 13
13. Miami Dolphins Selection: Will Johnson, CB, Michigan
Jordan Phillips to be picked at number 89
89 Houston Texans IDL Jordan Phillips Maryland
Jayden Higgins to be picked at number 38
38 New England Patriots WR Jayden Higgins Iowa State
Donovan Ezeiruaku to be picked at number 28
28. Detroit Lions Selection: Donovan Ezeiruaku, EDGE, Boston College
Josaiah Stewart to be picked at number 75
75 San Francisco 49ers EDGE Josaiah Stewart Michigan
Xavier Watts to be picked at number 42
42 New York Jets SAF Xavier Watts Notre Dame
Savion Williams to be picked at number 100
100 San Francisco 49ers WR Savion Williams TCU
Caleb Ransaw to be picked at number 111
111 Carolina Panthers SAF Caleb Ransaw Tulane
Jake Briningstool to be picked at number 247
247 Dallas Cowboys TE Jake Briningstool Clemson
Mitchell Evans to be picked at number 190
190 Los Angeles Rams TE Mitchell Evans Notre Dame
Shemar Turner to be picked at number 65
65 New York Giants IDL Shemar Turner Texas A&M
Armand Membou to be picked at number 7
7. New York Jets Selection: Armand Membou, OT, Missouri
Nic Scourton to be picked at number 40
40 New Orleans Saints EDGE Nic Scourton Texas A&M
Jabbar Muhammad to be picked at number 215
215 Las Vegas Raiders CB Jabbar Muhammad Oregon
Daniel Jackson to be picked at number 256
256 Los Angeles Chargers SAF Daniel Jackson Georgia
Bradyn Swinson to be picked at number 64
64 Philadelphia Eagles EDGE Bradyn Swinson LSU
Cam Jackson to be picked at number 200
200 Cleveland Browns IDL Cam Jackson Florida
Ashton Jeanty to be picked at number 6
6. Las Vegas Raiders Selection: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
LeQuint Allen Jr. to be picked at number 253
253 Miami Dolphins RB LeQuint Allen Jr. Syracuse
Luther Burden III to be picked at number 35
35 Tennessee Titans WR Luther Burden III Missouri
TreVeyon Henderson to be picked at number 41
41 Chicago Bears RB TreVeyon Henderson Ohio State
Chase Lundt to be picked at number 127
127 Los Angeles Rams OT Chase Lundt Connecticut
Kobe King to be picked at number 167
167 Tennessee Titans LB Kobe King Penn State
