Rich Eisen#38 of 87 NFL pundits · Mar 3, 2025

Eisen predicts three quarterbacks go in the first round, with Jaxson Dart taken at the end of the first round, and rejects the notion of three running backs or four quarterbacks in round one. They say Shedeur Sanders will not fall out of the top 10, and that the Browns will draft a quarterback second overall.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 5calls landed2 hits · 3 misses · all settled

37.6Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls

22.4A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

5 of 5Settlednone still waiting

#38Rich Eisen’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Rich Eisen said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I think three quarterbacks go in the first round.

Rich Eisen, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Overreaction Monday (podcast)
The episode: NFL Combine Recap: Shedeur Sanders Will Fall Out Of The Top 10
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidMar 3, 2025
GradedAug 13–17, 2026

1Los Angeles Rams to win the division“With him staying put, the NFC West Rams division to lose in 2025. I totally agree. I absolutely totally agree.”
2Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl“How do we go from that to, oh, they got Deebo, and, no longer are they the the leaders in the clubhouse in their own conference. Jeez, man. That's an overreaction.”
3Jaxson Dart to be picked “taken the end of the first round” (picks 1–32)“So I think Jackson Dart is gonna get taken the end of the first round.”
4Shedeur Sanders to be picked “not falling out of the top 10” (picks 1–10)“So I don't think he's falling out of the top 10 at all. No way, man.”
5Cleveland Browns to pick at number 2“virtually every human I I ran into in the Indianapolis thinks the Browns are taking a quarterback second overall, and that's the end of that”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Los Angeles Rams to win the division¹	Division Winners	—	0	0	0
Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl²	Conference Champions	NE and SEA won	0	0	0
Jaxson Dart to be picked “taken the end of the first round” (picks 1–32)³	Mock Draft Picks	Went 25	100	50	—
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “not falling out of the top 10” (picks 1–10)⁴	Mock Draft Picks	Went 144	0.3	50	—
Cleveland Browns to pick at number 2⁵	Team Draft Slot Calls	Picked at 5	87.81	11.97	+151.69
5 calls · 2 hits · 3 misses · all settled			37.6	22.4

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

5 checkable claims — 2 mock draft picks, 1 conference champion, 1 division winner and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 37.6 out of 100, against 22.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Division Winners Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to win the division
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
LAR
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
LAR
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this is wrong?
2Conference Champions Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked PHI
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
PHI
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
champions:
NE, SEA
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
no
Think this is wrong?
3Mock Draft Picks Jaxson Dart
Jaxson Dart to be picked “taken the end of the first round” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 25
100Hit · naive 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Jaxson Dart
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
25
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
taken the end of the first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
4Mock Draft Picks Shedeur Sanders
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “not falling out of the top 10” (picks 1–10)
What happenedWent 144
0.3Miss · naive 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Shedeur Sanders
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
0.3
baseline:
50
actual pick:
144
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0.3
predicted pick:
not falling out of the top 10 (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
5Team Draft Slot Calls Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns to pick at number 2
What happenedPicked at 5called 2
87.81Hit · naive 11.97
87.81this call11.97a naive guess75.84better than naive2difficulty+151.69skill
How this was scored
team:
CLE
draft:
2025
naive:
they picked 54 the year before
skill:
151.69
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
87.81
baseline:
11.97
actual pick:
5
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
predicted pick:
2
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
37.6naive 22.4

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

Colin Cowherd · Trade and Signing Calls · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Cowherd predicts Matt Stafford stays with the Rams rather than moving on, and says Travis Hunter may underachieve because they're being asked to play both ways — Cowherd doubts they're a No. 1 receiver and would slot them as a No. 2 receiver while being a No. 1 corner.
Colin Cowherd · Trade and Signing Calls · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Cowherd believes Matt Stafford's public negotiation posturing means he ultimately stays in Los Angeles, and he flags Travis Hunter as a high draft pick who could underachieve because trying to play both cornerback and receiver full-time will hurt him.
Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · Los Angeles Rams · Hit 93
Prisco gives score predictions for every Week 9 NFL game, picking the Bengals to rout the Falcons in Madrid, the Cowboys to rebound at Indianapolis, and the Jaguars to win in Baltimore without Lamar Jackson.
Doug Joubert · Score Predictions · Cleveland Browns · Miss 26
Joubert picks the Browns to win 28-17, saying the Saints haven't improved over the first half of the season despite Cleveland starting Shedeur Sanders.
Pat McAfee · Game Outcome Picks · Cleveland Browns · Miss 0
McAfee picked the Browns, with Shedeur Sanders starting, to beat the Saints in New Orleans.
Chris Simms · Score Predictions · Los Angeles Rams · Hit 93
Simms gave a predicted final score for every Week 9 game, picking the Bengals, Chiefs, Broncos, Lions, Giants, Rams, Cowboys, Saints, 49ers, Patriots, Seahawks, Texans, Bears and Bills, and also said they wouldn't be shocked to see Jacksonville reach the AFC Championship Game.

More mock draft picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.
Todd McShay · Mock Draft Picks · Keelon Russell · Miss 0
While breaking down LSU's offense, McShay called receiver Jackson Harris a top-50 NFL draft prospect, and later said LSU's Sam Levitt and Alabama's Keelan Russell are potential top-10 picks in a future draft.
Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.
Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.
Walt · Mock Draft Picks · Fernando Mendoza · Hit 100
In a running series of coach/GM hiring and firing grades, Walt projects Fernando Mendoza as the No. 1 overall pick of the Raiders in the 2026 draft and has LSU's Garrett Nussmeier going No. 2 overall in their 2026 mock draft.
Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Reviewing Week 7 college games, Campbell projects a slate of draft outcomes: Tennessee's Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick in 2026, Alabama's Bray Hubbard as a Day 2 pick and Yhonzae Pierre as a potential first-rounder, Jeremiah Smith as one of the very first players drafted, Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in the 2027 draft, Colin Simmons and Trevor Goosby as top-10 picks, and Jadan Baugh as a first-round pick.