Rich Eisen· Mar 3, 2025
Eisen predicts three quarterbacks go in the first round, with Jaxson Dart taken at the end of the first round, and rejects the notion of three running backs or four quarterbacks in round one. He says Shedeur Sanders will not fall out of the top 10, and that the Browns will draft a quarterback second overall.
“I think three quarterbacks go in the first round.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 2 mock draft picks, 1 conference champion, 1 division winner and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 37.6 out of 100, against 22.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersLos Angeles RamsMar 3, 2025
Los Angeles Rams to win the division
“With him staying put, the NFC West Rams division to lose in 2025. I totally agree. I absolutely totally agree.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Conference ChampionsPhiladelphia EaglesMar 3, 2025
Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl
“How do we go from that to, oh, they got Deebo, and, no longer are they the the leaders in the clubhouse in their own conference. Jeez, man. That's an overreaction.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Mock Draft PicksJaxson DartMar 3, 2025
Jaxson Dart to be picked “taken the end of the first round” (picks 1–32)
“So I think Jackson Dart is gonna get taken the end of the first round.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Jaxson Dart
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- taken the end of the first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksShedeur SandersMar 3, 2025
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “not falling out of the top 10” (picks 1–10)
“So I don't think he's falling out of the top 10 at all. No way, man.”
Miss · 0Scored 0.3a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Shedeur Sanders
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 0.3
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 144
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0.3
- predicted pick:
- not falling out of the top 10 (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Team Draft Slot CallsCleveland BrownsMar 3, 2025
Cleveland Browns to pick at number 2
“virtually every human I I ran into in the Indianapolis thinks the Browns are taking a quarterback second overall, and that's the end of that”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81a naive guess scored 11.97+151.69 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- CLE
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- they picked 54 the year before
- skill:
- 151.69
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 11.97
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Philadelphia EaglesMiss · 0Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Philadelphia EaglesMiss · 0Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Ty SchmitGame Outcome Picks · Philadelphia EaglesMiss · 0While taking the Bears to cover, he said he expects the Eagles to win Monday night in Chicago in a tight game.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Dillon ThienemanClose · 57Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.