Rich Eisen#38 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 1, 2025
Rich Eisen gave their week-5 top-10 NFL power rankings, with the Eagles first and the Steelers back at No. 10 over Jacksonville, while leaving the 2-2 Chiefs off entirely. They also reaffirmed their season pick of a Chiefs-Lions Super Bowl and said they plan to pick Seattle at home against Tampa Bay.
Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original
What Rich Eisen said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromEagles, Bills, Lions, Rams, Bucks, Packers, Chargers, Seahawks, Colts, Steelers
- Where it was said
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)
- The episode
- Hour 2: New NFL Power Rankings, Jayden Returns, plus Bears WR Rome Odunze
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 1, 2025
- GradedAug 13–17, 2026
- 1Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl“I had the Chiefs winning the AFC. At the end of the day, I wanna be right. Chiefs versus Lions.”
- 2Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl“I had the Chiefs winning the AFC. At the end of the day, I wanna be right. Chiefs versus Lions.”
- 3Power Rankings“So that's my one to 10 through, four weeks of the NFL season. Interesting. Eagles, Bills, Lions, Rams, Bucks, Packers, Chargers, Seahawks, Colts, Steelers”
- 4Seattle Seahawks to beat Bucks“Up one spot of the Seattle Seahawks... I think I'm gonna pick them this week. ... I am genuine, like I said, concerned about Bucky Irving and and them going to Seattle. That's a big game.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl1 | Conference Champions | NE and SEA won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl2 | Conference Champions | NE and SEA won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| “So that's my one to 10 through, four weeks of the NFL season.…”3 | Power Rankings | — | 59.39 | 46.06 | +23.73 | |
| Seattle Seahawks to beat Bucks4 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 calls · 1 close call · 3 misses · all settled | 14.8 | 11.5 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive4 checkable claims — 2 conference champions, 1 game outcome pick and 1 power ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 14.8 out of 100, against 11.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Conference ChampionsDetroit Lions
Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked DET0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.78difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE, SEA
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
2Conference ChampionsKansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked KC0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.78difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE, SEA
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
“So that's my one to 10 through, four weeks of the NFL season. Interesting. Eagles, Bills, Lions, Rams, Bucks, Packers, Chargers, Seahawks, Colts, Steelers”
VerdictClose59.39Close · naive 46.0659.39this call−46.06a naive guess=13.33better than naive×1.78difficulty=+23.73skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 23.73
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 59.39
- baseline:
- 46.06
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 14
4Game Outcome PicksSeattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to beat Bucks
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.78difficulty=0skillClosing line (Oct 5): Seahawks by 3.5 · favorite pick, Seahawks 62%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- TB
- score:
- 38-35
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- SEA
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
14.8naive 11.5
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Nick Wright · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; they also pick New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. They call Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.Nick Wright · Conference Champions · Denver Broncos · Close 50
Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.AJ Hawk · Conference Champions · Los Angeles Rams · Close 50
Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC they stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.Connor "Boston Connor" Campbell · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
Connor expects a tight first half in Denver before New England pulls away in the second half and advances to the Super Bowl.Gregg Rosenthal · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
Rosenthal picks the Patriots to beat the Broncos in a close, low-scoring AFC Championship in Denver (while liking Denver to cover the 4.5 points), takes the Seahawks over the Rams in a defensive NFC Championship they peg around 23-19, and forecasts a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl.Richard Sherman · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
Sherman picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams comfortably at home, 27-17, with a defensive score, and says the winner of that NFC Championship game will win the Super Bowl. They also pick the Patriots to win comfortably in Denver, 21-15, and assumes Matthew Stafford will be named league MVP.