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Rich Eisen#38 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 13, 2025

Eisen reaffirmed their preseason pick of Chiefs vs. Lions in Super Bowl LX and called the Lions the team to beat in the NFC, agreed Baker Mayfield is playing their way to MVP and the Buccaneers can be the NFC's No. 1 seed, said the Patriots should make the playoffs (while calling a playoff win an overreaction), and pegged the Commanders as the team that could take the NFC East from the Eagles.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 6calls landed1 hit · 5 misses · all settled
16.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 6 calls
16.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
6 of 6Settlednone still waiting
#38Rich Eisen’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Rich Eisen said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I called it before the season that I think that that is gonna be the Super Bowl sixty matchup.
Rich Eisen, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Overreaction Monday (podcast)
The episode
NFL Week 6: Chiefs are Back! Who are the Lions?? Mayfield MVP! Ravens Should Tank
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidOct 13, 2025
  2. GradedAug 13–17, 2026
  1. 1Washington Commanders to win the division“Commanders can win this. That's for sure. ... and and that would be the team that I'd peg as I'm sounding this thing out.”
  2. 2Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl“That could have been a Super Bowl preview for sure, and I told I called it before the season that I think that that is gonna be the Super Bowl sixty matchup.”
  3. 3Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl“That could have been a Super Bowl preview for sure, and I told I called it before the season that I think that that is gonna be the Super Bowl sixty matchup.”
  4. 4Tampa Bay Buccaneers to take the top seed“that's certainly the way you can be the number one seed, which they are currently leading the NFC right now at five and one”
  5. 5New England Patriots to make the playoffs“And there are some highly winnable games for you. So you should make the playoffs.”
  6. 6Baker Mayfield to win MVP“I can't say that's an overreaction right now. ... that's the way you win MVPs, and that's certainly the way you can be the number one seed, which they are currently leading the NFC right now at five and one”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Washington Commanders to win the division1Division Winners—0100−172
Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl2Conference ChampionsNE and SEA won000
Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl3Conference ChampionsNE and SEA won000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to take the top seed4Seeding, Byes and Home Field—000
New England Patriots to make the playoffs5Playoff PicksMade the playoffs1000+172
Baker Mayfield to win MVP6Award PicksMatthew Stafford won000
6 calls · 1 hit · 5 misses · all settled16.716.7

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

6 checkable claims — 2 conference champions, 1 award pick, 1 division winner, 1 playoff pick and 1 seeding, byes and home field — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 6 have settled, averaging 16.7 out of 100, against 16.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Division WinnersWashington Commanders

    Washington Commanders to win the division

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.72difficulty−172skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    −172
    method:
    division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
    they picked:
    WAS
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    PHI
    difficulty:
    1.72
    the naive guess:
    last season's winner of the same division
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13
    won the division:
    no
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Conference ChampionsKansas City Chiefs

    Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl

    What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked KC
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.72difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    champions:
    NE, SEA
    difficulty:
    1.72
    the naive guess:
    last season's conference champions
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13
    reached the Super Bowl:
    no
    lost the conference final:
    no
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Conference ChampionsDetroit Lions

    Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl

    What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked DET
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.72difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    DET
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    champions:
    NE, SEA
    difficulty:
    1.72
    the naive guess:
    last season's conference champions
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13
    reached the Super Bowl:
    no
    lost the conference final:
    no
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Seeding, Byes and Home FieldTampa Bay Buccaneers

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers to take the top seed

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.72difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    TB
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    checked as:
    the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
    actual tier:
    missed the playoffs
    difficulty:
    1.72
    the naive guess:
    where they finished last season (host)
    weeks in the season:
    18
    claimed seed:
    1
    claimed tier:
    bye
    weeks left when called:
    13
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Playoff PicksNew England Patriots

    New England Patriots to make the playoffs

    What happenedMade the playoffs
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.72difficulty+172skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    NE
    skill:
    172
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive guess said:
    no
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    made the playoffs:
    yes
    weeks left when called:
    13
    Think this is wrong?

  6. 6Award PicksBaker MayfieldTampa Bay Buccaneers

    Baker Mayfield to win MVP

    What happenedMatthew Stafford woncalled Baker Mayfield
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.72difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    mvp
    naive:
    the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Baker Mayfield
    season:
    2025
    who won:
    Matthew Stafford
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13
    Think this is wrong?
  7. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 6 settled calls, each counted once

    16.7naive 16.7

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

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