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Rich Eisen· Oct 13, 2025

Eisen reaffirmed his preseason pick of Chiefs vs. Lions in Super Bowl LX and called the Lions the team to beat in the NFC, agreed Baker Mayfield is playing his way to MVP and the Buccaneers can be the NFC's No. 1 seed, said the Patriots should make the playoffs (while calling a playoff win an overreaction), and pegged the Commanders as the team that could take the NFC East from the Eagles.

“I called it before the season that I think that that is gonna be the Super Bowl sixty matchup.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →

6 checkable claims — 2 conference champions, 1 award pick, 1 division winner, 1 playoff pick and 1 seeding, byes and home field — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 6 have settled, averaging 16.7 out of 100, against 16.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

6 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Division WinnersWashington CommandersOct 13, 2025

    Washington Commanders to win the division

    “Commanders can win this. That's for sure. ... and and that would be the team that I'd peg as I'm sounding this thing out.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-172 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    -172
    method:
    division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
    they picked:
    WAS
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    PHI
    difficulty:
    1.72
    the naive guess:
    last season's winner of the same division
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13
    won the division:
    no

    Think this is wrong?

  • Conference ChampionsKansas City ChiefsOct 13, 2025

    Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl

    “That could have been a Super Bowl preview for sure, and I told I called it before the season that I think that that is gonna be the Super Bowl sixty matchup.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    champions:
    NE,SEA
    difficulty:
    1.72
    the naive guess:
    last season's conference champions
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13
    reached the Super Bowl:
    no
    lost the conference final:
    no

    Think this is wrong?

  • Conference ChampionsDetroit LionsOct 13, 2025

    Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl

    “That could have been a Super Bowl preview for sure, and I told I called it before the season that I think that that is gonna be the Super Bowl sixty matchup.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    DET
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    champions:
    NE,SEA
    difficulty:
    1.72
    the naive guess:
    last season's conference champions
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13
    reached the Super Bowl:
    no
    lost the conference final:
    no

    Think this is wrong?

  • Seeding, Byes and Home FieldTampa Bay BuccaneersOct 13, 2025

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers to take the top seed

    “that's certainly the way you can be the number one seed, which they are currently leading the NFC right now at five and one”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    TB
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    checked as:
    the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
    actual tier:
    missed the playoffs
    difficulty:
    1.72
    the naive guess:
    where they finished last season (host)
    weeks in the season:
    18
    claimed seed:
    1
    claimed tier:
    bye
    weeks left when called:
    13

    Think this is wrong?

  • Playoff PicksNew England PatriotsOct 13, 2025

    New England Patriots to make the playoffs

    “And there are some highly winnable games for you. So you should make the playoffs.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+172 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    NE
    skill:
    172
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive guess said:
    no
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    made the playoffs:
    yes
    weeks left when called:
    13

    Think this is wrong?

  • Award PicksBaker MayfieldTampa Bay BuccaneersOct 13, 2025

    Baker Mayfield to win MVP

    “I can't say that's an overreaction right now. ... that's the way you win MVPs, and that's certainly the way you can be the number one seed, which they are currently leading the NFC right now at five and one”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    mvp
    naive:
    the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Baker Mayfield
    season:
    2025
    winner:
    Matthew Stafford
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More conference champions

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

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