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Tyler Sullivan#27 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 19, 2026

Sullivan picked the 49ers to defeat the Commanders 30-20.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

90Hit · out of 100
49ers 23–17What happenedcalled 49ers by 10 · won by 6
86.23A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
90.48This callout of 100
#27Tyler Sullivan’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Tyler Sullivan said

Tyler Sullivan's pick: 49ers 30-20 over Commanders
Our reading: San Francisco 49ers 30 — Commanders 20
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
Pick Six: Jalen Hurts could be done for the year, plus Colts fire GM Chris Ballard and Commanders-49ers picks
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidOct 19
  2. PlayedOct 19
  3. GradedOct 20

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 90.5 out of 100, against 86.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsSan Francisco 49ers

    San Francisco 49ers 30 — Commanders 20

    What happened49ers 23–17called 49ers by 10 · won by 6
    90.48Hit · naive 86.23
    90.48this call86.23a naive guess4.25better than naive1.72difficulty+7.31skill

    Closing line (Oct 19): 49ers by 7.5, total 51.5 · this 30–20 calls a bigger 49ers win (by 10) and fewer points (50).

    How this was scored
    score:
    17-23
    skill:
    7.31
    they picked:
    SF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    90.48
    baseline:
    86.23
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    13
    naive home margin:
    0.22
    predicted margin:
    10
    Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

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