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Scott KennedyOct 25, 2026

Kennedy says Atlanta has a puncher's chance given San Francisco's injuries but still picks the 49ers to win comfortably.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

48Close · out of 100
Falcons 29–20What happenedcalled 49ers by 8 · lost by 9
77.89A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
47.62This callout of 100
−50.56Skillafter difficulty

What Scott Kennedy said

Prediction : 49ers 31, Falcons 23
Our reading: San Francisco 49ers 31 — Falcons 23
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
FalconsSI Predictions Falcons vs. 49ers Week 7: Can Atlanta Finally Win at Home?
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidOct 25
  2. PlayedOct 25
  3. GradedOct 25

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 47.6 out of 100, against 77.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsSan Francisco 49ers

    San Francisco 49ers 31 — Falcons 23

    What happenedFalcons 29–20called 49ers by 8 · lost by 9
    47.62Close · naive 77.89
    47.62this call77.89a naive guess−30.27worse than naive1.67difficulty−50.56skill

    Closing line (Oct 25): 49ers by 2.5, total 49.5 · this 31–23 calls a bigger 49ers win (by 8) and more points (54).

    How this was scored
    score:
    20-29
    skill:
    −50.56
    they picked:
    SF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    47.62
    baseline:
    77.89
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    9
    weeks left when called:
    12
    naive home margin:
    −0.28
    predicted margin:
    8
    Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

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